The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −4 193.13₴

Invest 10 135.85₴

Average return 5 942.73₴

ROI −41.4%

Chance of profit 15%

With float: invest 12 771.19 ₴, profit −6 828.46 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈29% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (estimate)

×5

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.2879

10 135.85 ₴

at 2 027.17

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 10 135.85 ₴ −4 193.13 (−41.4%)

What you get 13 outcomes

Profitable outcome 15%
Losing outcome 69%
About break-even 8%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.035999

11 115.66 ₴ 7.69%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.122499

15 848.86 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

7 786.92 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

6 641.79 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

13 181.68 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

3 626.63 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

3 440.80 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

9 300.19 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

4 340.09 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

3 190.20 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

not on Steam: above the cap 7.69%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

3 599.50 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 771.50 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −4 854.22 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −4 344.68 ₴ historical median

8% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 13 outcomes

More

How to build