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The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +7.83$

Invest 15.29$

Average return 23.13$

ROI +51.2%

Chance of profit 51%

With float: invest at least 38.28 $, profit at most −15.15 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

AUG | Amber Fade

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

2.28 $

at 2.28

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1667

0.81 $

at 0.81

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

12.21 $

at 1.53

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.29 $ +7.83 (+51.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 51%
Losing outcome 47%
About break-even 2%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

8.60 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

66.49 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

31.02 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

2.79 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | POP AWP

Factory New

float up to 0.038499

35.80 $ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

17.40 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Space Race

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

21.38 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Factory New

float up to 0.050749

19.36 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

10.55 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.83 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +5.51 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 24 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2534846 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.67$ · invest 14.10$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161818 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074110 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2538193 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.63$ · invest 13.88$
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165362 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075343 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2537372 · The Lake Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.59$ · invest 13.48$
rare inputs

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163661 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074751 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2543660 · The Vanguard Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 8.57$ · invest 14.47$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162887 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074482 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2540624 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.53$ · invest 13.37$
rare inputs

FAMAS | Crypsis (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163171 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074581 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2543498 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.51$ · invest 13.46$
rare inputs

MP9 | Spy Prototype (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2536310 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.48$ · invest 14.41$
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Twist (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2513192 · The Arabesque Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.48$ · invest 13.46$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2536565 · The Italy Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.47$ · invest 13.68$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167286 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076012 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2534386 · The Glove Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.47$ · invest 13.95$
rare inputs

Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2543644 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8.45$ · invest 13.93$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2533725 · The Genesis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.38$ · invest 13.12$
rare inputs

P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2512564 · The Anubis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.37$ · invest 14.22$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2543637 · The Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.36$ · invest 13.69$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166940 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075892 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2528055 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.36$ · invest 13.17$
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Brass (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2542361 · The Safehouse Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.35$ · invest 13.77$
rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166940 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075892 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2529782 · The Fever Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.33$ · invest 13.17$
rare inputs

P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164095 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074902 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2538880 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.32$ · invest 13.95$
rare inputs

AUG | Plague (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164540 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075057 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2515750 · The Bank Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.32$ · invest 13.32$
rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Tuxedo (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165362 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075343 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2524263 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.29$ · invest 13.23$
rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164149 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074921 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2542981 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.28$ · invest 13.39$
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163569 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074719 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2525656 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.26$ · invest 13.32$
rare inputs

MP9 | Modest Threat (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166090 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075596 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2542786 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.12$ · invest 13.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165362 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075343 instead of 0.075842
Craft 2543686 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 7.90$ · invest 15.03$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear) instead of AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.169802 instead of 0.166796; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076887 instead of 0.075842

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build