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The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit +9 330.10₴

Invest 20 015.81₴

Average return 29 345.91₴

ROI +46.6%

Chance of profit 45%

With float: invest at least 52 064.97 ₴, profit at most −22 719.06 ₴

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −18 593 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

1 226.83 ₴

at 1 226.83

Steam

×9

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

18 788.98 ₴

at 2 087.66

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 20 015.81 ₴ +9 330.10 (+46.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −16 327 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

3 680.49 ₴

at 1 226.83

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1718

1 226.83 ₴

at 1 226.83

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

12 525.99 ₴

at 2 087.66

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17 433.30 ₴ +8 694.53 (+49.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −9 864 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

5 115.25 ₴

at 852.54

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

3 680.49 ₴

at 1 226.83

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1718

1 226.83 ₴

at 1 226.83

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10 022.56 ₴ +6 451.05 (+64.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −17 516 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

852.54 ₴

at 852.54

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

1 226.83 ₴

at 1 226.83

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

16 701.32 ₴

at 2 087.66

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18 780.69 ₴ +8 956.19 (+47.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −14 763 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

4 907.31 ₴

at 1 226.83

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1666

2 453.66 ₴

at 1 226.83

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

8 350.66 ₴

at 2 087.66

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15 711.63 ₴ +8 807.17 (+56.1%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 50%
About break-even 5%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 559.88 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

float up to 0.044799

3 636.51 ₴ 45.00%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 007.70 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 180.81 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Recoil Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Gallery Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4 777.05 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +9 080.58 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 18 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2541378 · The Recoil Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 9 098.16₴ · invest 19 450.46₴
profit on prices without salesat least −17 338 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2522297 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 9 078.78₴ · invest 19 940.39₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 517 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076905 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2530676 · The Fracture Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 9 060.94₴ · invest 19 329.48₴
profit on prices without salesat least −17 767 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2537193 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 989.27₴ · invest 19 771.68₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 028 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076792 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2526748 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 986.89₴ · invest 20 595.64₴
profit on prices without salesat least −19 173 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2543344 · The Spectrum Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 976.95₴ · invest 20 230.09₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 807 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076627 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2518066 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 931.53₴ · invest 20 310.57₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 888 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075874 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2524318 · The Clutch Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 929.52₴ · invest 19 390.01₴
profit on prices without salesat least −17 507 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076737 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2539805 · The Phoenix Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 890.42₴ · invest 19 772.86₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 350 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075874 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2532359 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 871.89₴ · invest 20 073.78₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 651 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076934 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2533062 · The Gamma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 783.32₴ · invest 19 940.39₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 517 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076395 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2541741 · The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 777.64₴ · invest 19 703.20₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 280 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2529836 · The Fever Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 772.39₴ · invest 20 137.63₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 533 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2535836 · The Horizon Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 748.46₴ · invest 20 590.51₴
profit on prices without salesat least −19 168 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076934 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2527721 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 707.62₴ · invest 19 645.87₴
profit on prices without salesat least −17 729 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2534419 · The Glove Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 655.06₴ · invest 20 071.08₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 218 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2525699 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 556.73₴ · invest 19 780.10₴
profit on prices without salesat least −17 880 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.075965
Craft 2540237 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 8 551.81₴ · invest 20 280.32₴
profit on prices without salesat least −18 857 ₴ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.075965

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build