The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +18 020.15₴

Invest 39 363.09₴

Average return 57 383.24₴

ROI +45.8%

Chance of profit 63%

With float: invest at least 92 467.61 ₴, profit at most −35 084.37 ₴

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 6.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −21 830.25 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

36 308.98 ₴

at 9 077.24

Steam

×1

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

3 054.11 ₴

at 3 054.11

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 39 363.09 ₴ +18 020.15 (+45.8%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.9% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 208 ₴

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

27 231.73 ₴

at 9 077.24

Steam

×2

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

6 108.23 ₴

at 3 054.11

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 33 339.96 ₴ +13 465.91 (+40.4%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 11.0% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −5 364 ₴

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

18 154.49 ₴

at 9 077.24

Steam

×3

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

9 162.34 ₴

at 3 054.11

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 27 316.83 ₴ +8 911.67 (+32.6%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −8 520 ₴

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

9 077.24 ₴

at 9 077.24

Steam

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

12 216.46 ₴

at 3 054.11

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 21 293.70 ₴ +4 357.44 (+20.5%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 63%
Losing outcome 19%
About break-even 11%
Above the Steam cap 7%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 717.88 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90 850.73 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 493.79 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.64%

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 559.88 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 163.26 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 034.86 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 513.33 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 123.26 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 522.09 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 477.07 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 262.52 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

200 315.52 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 973.58 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 992.71 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 751.88 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 607.59 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

39 342.87 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 760.60 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 589.90 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 052.17 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 200.25 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

14 392.60 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

10 715.45 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

15 389.55 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 968.49 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

29 989.50 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 999.34 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 695.41 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

80 180.04 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 126.51 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 393.25 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

9 327.67 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +17 334.41 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17 855.15 ₴ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2544401 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 19 825.32₴ · invest 46 095.95₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2544404 · The Breakout Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 19 825.32₴ · invest 46 095.95₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2544771 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 18 782.94₴ · invest 38 957.21₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2544775 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 18 782.94₴ · invest 38 957.21₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2544927 · The Phoenix Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 18 360.32₴ · invest 41 265.21₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2544930 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 18 360.32₴ · invest 41 265.21₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 2544989 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 18 336.46₴ · invest 41 289.07₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2544992 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 18 336.46₴ · invest 41 289.07₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2544979 · The Vanguard Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 18 115.86₴ · invest 41 509.67₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011923 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2544982 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 18 115.86₴ · invest 41 509.67₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011923 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2544490 · The CS20 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 18 020.15₴ · invest 39 363.09₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2544905 · The Huntsman Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 929.83₴ · invest 39 705.63₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2544908 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 17 929.83₴ · invest 39 705.63₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2544955 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 853.27₴ · invest 41 772.26₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2544957 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 17 853.27₴ · invest 41 772.26₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.011261

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build