The Dead Hand Collection + The Kilowatt Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +161 282.78₸

Invest 399 579.16₸

Average return 560 861.94₸

ROI +40.4%

Chance of profit 62%

With float: invest at least 937 793.70 ₸, profit at most −376 931.82 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 3.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −236 071.82 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

6% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

364 403.51 ₸

at 91 100.88

Steam

×1

AWP | Chrome Cannon

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

35 175.65 ₸

at 35 175.65

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 399 579.16 ₸ +161 282.78 (+40.4%)

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 2.7% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −37 881 ₸

6% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

273 302.64 ₸

at 91 100.88

Steam

×2

AWP | Chrome Cannon

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

70 351.30 ₸

at 35 175.65

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 343 653.94 ₸ +96 004.80 (+27.9%)

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 1.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −77 415 ₸

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

182 201.76 ₸

at 91 100.88

Steam

×3

AWP | Chrome Cannon

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

105 526.95 ₸

at 35 175.65

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 287 728.71 ₸ +30 726.82 (+10.7%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 62%
Losing outcome 31%
About break-even 4%
Above the Steam cap 4%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

599 339.61 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

911 794.56 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

767 705.62 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.64%

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

678 043.32 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

433 194.35 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

542 303.73 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

767 901.77 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

713 806.07 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

677 664.00 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

677 212.24 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

384 009.62 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 010 403.19 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

642 050.52 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

632 206.30 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

629 789.30 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

728 703.06 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

394 852.23 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

338 827.51 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

628 163.66 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 907 398.29 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

774 795.86 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

80 451.24 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

68 485.77 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

75 098.79 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Kukri Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

38 838.54 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

104 390.10 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

75 360.69 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 103.42 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

298 941.28 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 491.61 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

46 092.31 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

92 558.30 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

95 461.93 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife

no wear

45 661.48 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Kilowatt Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Kilowatt Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Kilowatt Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +156 092.68 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +159 352.77 ₸ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Kilowatt Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2544873 · The Fracture Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 177 779.91₸ · invest 394 403.49₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544876 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 177 779.91₸ · invest 394 403.49₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544323 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 173 900.56₸ · invest 424 512.16₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544325 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 173 900.56₸ · invest 424 512.16₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544999 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 169 004.06₸ · invest 429 408.66₸
profit on prices without salesat least −534 ₸ sale unreliable no outcome price marketplace price float cannot be reached rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2545001 · The Dead Hand Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 169 004.06₸ · invest 429 408.66₸
profit on prices without salesat least −534 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544937 · The Prisma Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 167 554.90₸ · invest 404 422.49₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544940 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 167 554.90₸ · invest 404 422.49₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544985 · The Wildfire Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 166 813.02₸ · invest 406 889.12₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 689 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012146 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544987 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 166 813.02₸ · invest 406 889.12₸
profit on prices without salesat least −3 689 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012146 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544915 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 165 127.41₸ · invest 463 791.27₸
profit on prices without salesat least −18 080 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)
Craft 2544918 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 165 127.41₸ · invest 463 791.27₸
profit on prices without salesat least −18 080 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)
Craft 2544889 · The Gamma Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 164 334.40₸ · invest 431 283.13₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 503 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544893 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 164 334.40₸ · invest 431 283.13₸
profit on prices without salesat least −8 503 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.013513
Craft 2544911 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 161 282.75₸ · invest 399 579.16₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Kilowatt Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build