The Breakout Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit −13 188.45₴

Invest 38 873.74₴

Average return 25 685.29₴

ROI −33.9%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest 44 798.31 ₴, profit −19 113.02 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −21 371.16 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×4

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4835

35 763.84 ₴

at 8 940.96

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.8190

3 109.90 ₴

at 3 109.90

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 38 873.74 ₴ −13 188.45 (−33.9%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.074999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.244374

78 800.51 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

31 465.29 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

33 778.05 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

51 179.83 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.753749

25 200.91 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.753749

26 931.70 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.753749

24 176.96 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.753749

28 750.02 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.753749

18 996.21 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.753749

30 788.07 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.753749

26 620.43 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

47 833.54 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.074999

68 586.23 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

25 743.02 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

34 542.24 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.796874

47 122.52 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

33 455.56 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.468749

28 488.00 ₴ 0.67%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.074999

14 621.54 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 548.25 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.609374

5 415.51 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.796874

5 629.99 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

3 152.00 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.468749

3 568.96 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.074999

5 404.06 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 725.13 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

3 260.07 ₴ 0.67%

price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.796874

2 701.71 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

2 203.22 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.468749

2 386.04 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.074999

9 221.71 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 955.08 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

4 588.83 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.796874

4 570.04 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

2 979.99 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.468749

2 506.29 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.074999

11 513.80 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 858.95 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.609374

4 505.10 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.796874

6 507.02 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.937499

3 029.07 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.468749

3 072.77 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) × 4 67% of the wear range fits ×1.16 35 763.84 → 41 518.24 ₴

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) × 1 67% of the wear range fits ×1.05 3 109.90 → 3 279.39 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.937499900

outcomes come out up to 0.074999, 0.244374, 0.937499, 0.937499, 0.937499, 0.753749, 0.753749, 0.753749, 0.753749, 0.753749, 0.753749, 0.753749, 0.000000, 0.074999, 0.449999, 0.937499, 0.796874, 0.937499, 0.468749, 0.074999, 0.449999, 0.609374, 0.796874, 0.937499, 0.468749, 0.074999, 0.449999, 0.937499, 0.796874, 0.937499, 0.468749, 0.074999, 0.449999, 0.937499, 0.796874, 0.937499, 0.468749, 0.074999, 0.449999, 0.609374, 0.796874, 0.937499, 0.468749

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 3 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −15 645.49 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −13 303.02 ₴ historical median

1% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Dreams & Nightmares Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 17 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2547230 · The Huntsman Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −12 576.51₴ · invest 37 517.45₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.499999 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547234 · The Breakout Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit −12 576.51₴ · invest 37 517.45₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.499999 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547265 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −12 708.78₴ · invest 38 562.83₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547269 · The Breakout Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit −12 708.78₴ · invest 38 562.83₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547266 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −12 857.95₴ · invest 38 699.94₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.499999 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547270 · The Breakout Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit −12 857.95₴ · invest 38 699.94₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.499999 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547273 · The Prisma Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −12 914.39₴ · invest 38 768.44₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.493589 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547277 · The Breakout Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit −12 914.39₴ · invest 38 768.44₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.493589 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547274 · The Prisma Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −12 926.45₴ · invest 38 768.44₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547278 · The Breakout Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit −12 926.45₴ · invest 38 768.44₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547180 · The Fever Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −12 954.07₴ · invest 38 230.31₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.499999 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547184 · The Breakout Collection + The Fever Collection · profit −12 954.07₴ · invest 38 230.31₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.499999 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547162 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −12 993.36₴ · invest 38 672.35₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547167 · The Breakout Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit −12 993.36₴ · invest 38 672.35₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547237 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −13 084.35₴ · invest 37 292.34₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547240 · The Breakout Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit −13 084.35₴ · invest 37 292.34₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred); StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.500000 instead of 0.483552
Craft 2547163 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −13 188.45₴ · invest 38 873.74₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build