The Wildfire Collection + The CS20 Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit · with float −6 762.59₴

Invest 13 573.90₴

Average return 6 811.31₴

ROI −49.8%

Chance of profit 12%

With float: invest 13 573.90 ₴, profit −6 762.59 ₴

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 12.3% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −3 672.16 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈20% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (estimate)

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.2755

2 007.48 ₴

at 2 007.48

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.2755

7 771.62 ₴

at 1 942.90

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 9 779.10 ₴ −2 967.79 (−30.4%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 22%
Losing outcome 60%
About break-even 6%
Above the Steam cap 12%

Order

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

22 997.17 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

11 801.93 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

7 205.06 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

5 736.04 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

9 109.94 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 956.23 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 529.73 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

11 679.52 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 913.65 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 265.92 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife

no wear

17 522.13 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

13 816.89 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

15 008.45 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

7 767.42 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

4 678.47 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

9 934.33 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 617.54 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 199.90 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

9 249.27 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 329.49 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 192.53 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 217.13 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 599.50 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 731.77 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −3 668.45 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −3 055.02 ₴ historical median

9% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2547667 · The CS20 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −2 967.79₴ · invest 9 779.10₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2547541 · The Kilowatt Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −3 002.93₴ · invest 9 300.11₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested): float at most 0.277058 instead of 0.275569
Craft 2547545 · The CS20 Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit −3 002.93₴ · invest 9 300.11₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested): float at most 0.277058 instead of 0.275569

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build