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The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Falchion Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −11.77$

Invest at least 23.58$

Average return 11.82$

ROI −49.9%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 23.58 $, profit at most −11.77 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Share of fitting lots unknown: the price is understated

×1

P250 | Vino Primo

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3846

0.92 $

at 0.92

Steam

×2

P2000 | Handgun

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3846

1.69 $

at 0.85

Steam

×7

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1652

7.00 $

at 1.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9.62 $ +2.20 (+22.9%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 65%

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

9.24 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

float up to 0.047999

22.70 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8.99 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6.52 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

SG 553 | Integrale

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

19.73 $ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2018 Inferno Collection Variant 3 The Horizon Collection instead of The 2018 Inferno Collection Variant 4 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The 2018 Inferno Collection Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.34 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1.70 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2018 Inferno Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2623611 · The Falchion Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 2.24$ · invest 9.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Well-Worn) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn)
Craft 2623356 · The Falchion Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 2.22$ · invest 11.33$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn)
Craft 2623765 · The Falchion Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 2.11$ · invest 10.16$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Scaffold (Field-Tested) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn); P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384023 instead of 0.384631; Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163221 instead of 0.165216
Craft 2623856 · The Falchion Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 2.10$ · invest 10.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Praetorian (Field-Tested) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn); P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384952 instead of 0.384631; Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166272 instead of 0.165216
Craft 2617389 · The Chroma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 2.10$ · invest 10.48$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn); P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn): float at most 0.385243 instead of 0.384631; Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167227 instead of 0.165216
Craft 2623766 · The Falchion Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 2.04$ · invest 10.16$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Scaffold (Field-Tested) instead of P250 | Vino Primo (Well-Worn); P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384475 instead of 0.384631; Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164703 instead of 0.165216

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 5 outcomes

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How to build