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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Arabesque Collection

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade

Average profit at most · with float −47.13₴

Invest at least 103.50₴

Average return 56.37₴

ROI −45.5%

Chance of profit 10%

With float: invest at least 103.50 ₴, profit at most −47.13 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1684

14.35 ₴

at 14.35

souvenirSteam

×5

Nova | Morning Sun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1684

10.47 ₴

at 2.09

Steam

×4

Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

19.72 ₴

at 4.93

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 44.54 ₴ +11.83 (+26.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1634

43.06 ₴

at 14.35

souvenirSteam

×1

Nova | Morning Sun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1634

2.09 ₴

at 2.09

Steam

×6

Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

29.58 ₴

at 4.93

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 74.74 ₴ +5.07 (+6.8%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 33%
Losing outcome 68%

at a loss

worst

FAMAS | Snake Song

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.142857

39.67 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.142857

44.50 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.142857

40.54 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Sultan

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.142857

80.68 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Humidor

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071428

125.06 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MP9 | Music Box

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.078571

120.79 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

178.90 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Purple DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.078571

319.70 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Arabesque Collection

Variant 2 only The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The Arabesque Collection Variant 4 The Ancient Collection instead of The Arabesque Collection Variant 5 The 2021 Vertigo Collection instead of The Arabesque Collection Variant 6 The Bank Collection instead of The Arabesque Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5.21 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +10.68 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Arabesque Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2602920 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Arabesque Collection · profit 13.10₴ · invest 44.54₴
M249 | Humidor: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164891 instead of 0.168437; Nova | Morning Sun (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164891 instead of 0.168437; Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075179 instead of 0.076413

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Arabesque Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build