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The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −14.55$

Invest at least 41.83$

Average return 27.27$

ROI −34.8%

Chance of profit 28%

With float: invest at least 41.83 $, profit at most −14.55 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Glock-18 | Blue Fissure

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

3.85 $

at 3.85

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

12.31 $

at 1.54

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.91 $ +10.36 (+61.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

19.78 $

at 3.96

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

4.62 $

at 1.54

Steam

×2

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

4.38 $

at 2.19

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 28.78 $ +4.69 (+16.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −8 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1624

19.78 $

at 3.96

Steam

×1

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

5.99 $

at 5.99

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

4.62 $

at 1.54

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

2.19 $

at 2.19

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 32.58 $ +2.44 (+7.5%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

8.34 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77.07 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

30.14 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

2.79 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

7.09 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Heirloom

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

84.76 $ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

17.51 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Titanium Bit

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

80.24 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Arms Deal 3 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4.54 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +7.95 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arms Deal 3 Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2603675 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.57$ · invest 15.84$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Humidor (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.169802 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076887 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2629911 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.46$ · invest 14.14$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Field-Tested) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161818 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074110 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2638673 · The Vanguard Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 10.44$ · invest 14.45$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162887 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074482 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2629418 · The Glove Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.31$ · invest 14.00$
rare inputs

Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2631368 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.28$ · invest 14.46$
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Twist (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2638659 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 10.24$ · invest 13.81$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2608031 · The Anubis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.18$ · invest 14.21$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2634013 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 10.13$ · invest 13.96$
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Lumen (Field-Tested) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164753 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075131 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2637855 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.92$ · invest 13.82$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Field-Tested) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166424 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075712 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2604057 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.70$ · invest 15.28$
sells slowly rare inputs

AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166796 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075842 instead of 0.075446
Craft 2633655 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.64$ · invest 17.08$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) instead of Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163150 instead of 0.165657; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074574 instead of 0.075446

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

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How to build