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The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −111.22₴

Invest at least 480.08₴

Average return 368.86₴

ROI −23.2%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 480.08 ₴, profit at most −111.22 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Negev | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

50.85 ₴

at 25.43

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

86.25 ₴

at 17.25

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

68.44 ₴

at 22.81

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 205.54 ₴ +163.32 (+79.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −19 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Negev | Desert-Strike

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

20.16 ₴

at 20.16

Steam

×6

Negev | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

152.55 ₴

at 25.43

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1649

40.33 ₴

at 13.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 213.04 ₴ +25.98 (+12.2%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 85%
Losing outcome 15%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

999.19 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

332.78 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

248.56 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

355.13 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Osiris

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

150.00 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

CZ75-Auto | Tigris

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

295.76 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Koi

Factory New

float up to 0.020999

148.75 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P250 | Supernova

Factory New

float up to 0.027999

146.58 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +96.59 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +139.55 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 23 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2634237 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 199.36₴ · invest 202.99₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2636936 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 190.26₴ · invest 210.90₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2637500 · The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 189.61₴ · invest 196.39₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2606154 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 185.95₴ · invest 217.25₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074396 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074396 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2610022 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 185.73₴ · invest 229.13₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2616968 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 183.51₴ · invest 202.24₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2635950 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 182.74₴ · invest 217.66₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2623640 · The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 182.32₴ · invest 218.93₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2617883 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 180.13₴ · invest 237.38₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2627893 · The Gamma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 179.76₴ · invest 200.17₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2630706 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 178.97₴ · invest 243.54₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2615904 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 175.00₴ · invest 174.24₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074537 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074537 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2635170 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 172.83₴ · invest 198.11₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2630167 · The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 171.66₴ · invest 230.58₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074411 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074411 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2637529 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 169.16₴ · invest 190.72₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2637596 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 168.65₴ · invest 222.51₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear), P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2637565 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 168.43₴ · invest 201.03₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 2613904 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 168.36₴ · invest 218.78₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2626391 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 167.62₴ · invest 219.82₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074471 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074471 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2618939 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 166.59₴ · invest 189.09₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2601263 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 156.93₴ · invest 218.40₴
rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074185 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074185 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2615905 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 153.87₴ · invest 171.81₴
rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 7 pcs instead of 5; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074282 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074282 instead of 0.074117
Craft 2620346 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 153.14₴ · invest 177.89₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074793 instead of 0.074117; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074793 instead of 0.074117

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build