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The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −1 113.77₸

Invest at least 2 387.19₸

Average return 1 273.42₸

ROI −46.7%

Chance of profit 6%

With float: invest at least 2 387.19 ₸, profit at most −1 113.77 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

323.83 ₸

at 323.83

Steam

×7

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0763

418.99 ₸

at 59.86

Steam

×2

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

280.22 ₸

at 140.11

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 023.04 ₸ +250.38 (+24.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −21 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

647.67 ₸

at 323.83

Steam

×7

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0763

418.99 ₸

at 59.86

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

140.11 ₸

at 140.11

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 206.77 ₸ +287.08 (+23.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −498 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

1 063.04 ₸

at 265.76

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

647.67 ₸

at 323.83

Steam

×4

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

239.42 ₸

at 59.86

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 950.13 ₸ +425.30 (+21.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −381 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

1 063.04 ₸

at 265.76

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

323.83 ₸

at 323.83

Steam

×4

Negev | Ultralight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

239.42 ₸

at 59.86

Steam

×1

SG 553 | Ol' Rusty

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

140.11 ₸

at 140.11

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 766.40 ₸ +388.60 (+22.0%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 44%
Losing outcome 38%
About break-even 18%

at a loss

Galil AR | Connexion

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

969.34 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

about break-even

MAC-10 | Allure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 213.67 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

MAG-7 | Monster Call

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 735.48 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Kitbash

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

883.58 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

Tec-9 | Brother

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 252.91 ₸ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

2 918.17 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 848.27 ₸ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

4 012.35 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

2 496.00 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

452.94 ₸ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Fracture Collection Variant 6 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Fracture Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +14.68 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +153.12 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Fracture Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2616399 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 256.39₸ · invest 938.90₸
rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076082 instead of 0.076323; SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New): float at most 0.005322 instead of 0.005533
Craft 2624988 · The Fracture Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 247.20₸ · invest 918.77₸
rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074181 instead of 0.076323; SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New): float at most 0.003658 instead of 0.005533
Craft 2625290 · The Fracture Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 241.06₸ · invest 968.69₸
UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074001 instead of 0.076323; SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New): float at most 0.003501 instead of 0.005533

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build