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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −2 359.56₸

Invest at least 10 105.82₸

Average return 7 746.26₸

ROI −23.4%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 10 105.82 ₸, profit at most −2 359.56 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

1 295.33 ₸

at 323.83

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1616

1 024.61 ₸

at 341.54

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

2 091.48 ₸

at 697.16

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4 411.42 ₸ +3 334.84 (+75.6%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

3 779.09 ₸ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 922.33 ₸ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

13 654.99 ₸ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

1 264.25 ₸ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

2 918.17 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

934.31 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.045499

4 012.35 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.043749

2 496.00 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.184624

452.94 ₸ 8.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 698.13 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2 596.55 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2634391 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 467.48₸ · invest 3 182.58₸
rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163623 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074738 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2601356 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 383.35₸ · invest 4 380.23₸
rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162942 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074501 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2630277 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 161.44₸ · invest 4 320.21₸
rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear), Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163177 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074583 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2634393 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 130.29₸ · invest 3 182.58₸
rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166170 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075624 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2638322 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 967.66₸ · invest 3 586.89₸
rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164343 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074988 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2617158 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 915.94₸ · invest 3 617.38₸
rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164343 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074988 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2626597 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 742.73₸ · invest 3 991.74₸
rare inputs

MP5-SD | Statics (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163918 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074841 instead of 0.074057
Craft 2628057 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 2 682.85₸ · invest 3 423.89₸
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear), Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 3; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162898 instead of 0.161665; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074057

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build