The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit · with float −9 753.30₴

Invest 15 781.48₴

Average return 6 028.18₴

ROI −61.8%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest 15 781.48 ₴, profit −9 753.30 ₴

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −10 263.86 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 5 contracts · easy (by listings)

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

any lot

3 246.79 ₴

at 3 246.79

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Battle-Scarred

any lot

9 789.36 ₴

at 3 263.12

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector

Battle-Scarred

any lot

2 647.44 ₴

at 2 647.44

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 15 683.59 ₴ −9 655.40 (−61.6%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 4%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.232500

11 981.96 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

8 199.52 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

5 604.42 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

7 280.58 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

3 494.68 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

4 260.55 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

8 091.00 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

6 184.68 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

4 408.60 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

3 239.38 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

3 587.27 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

7 873.86 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

67 421.63 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.427200

25 710.12 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

26 968.56 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.756500

44 528.33 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

31 712.32 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.445000

30 223.30 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

14 776.39 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.427200

4 135.18 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.578500

5 022.90 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.756500

5 621.45 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

3 657.84 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.445000

3 694.10 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

4 661.07 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.427200

2 889.68 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

3 146.33 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.756500

2 675.73 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

2 175.95 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.445000

2 301.18 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

12 870.76 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.427200

3 655.59 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

3 987.30 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.756500

3 781.89 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

2 993.51 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.445000

2 917.10 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

12 518.01 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.427200

3 865.88 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.578500

4 062.82 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.756500

5 394.34 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

2 996.66 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.445000

2 685.39 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) × 1 100% of the wear range fits ×1.00 3 246.79 → 3 246.79 ₴

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) × 3 100% of the wear range fits ×1.01 9 789.36 → 9 887.25 ₴

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) × 1 100% of the wear range fits ×1.00 2 647.44 → 2 647.44 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.890000000

outcomes come out up to 0.071200, 0.232500, 0.890000, 0.890000, 0.890000, 0.718600, 0.718600, 0.718600, 0.718600, 0.718600, 0.718600, 0.718600, 0.000000, 0.071200, 0.427200, 0.890000, 0.756500, 0.890000, 0.445000, 0.071200, 0.427200, 0.578500, 0.756500, 0.890000, 0.445000, 0.071200, 0.427200, 0.890000, 0.756500, 0.890000, 0.445000, 0.071200, 0.427200, 0.890000, 0.756500, 0.890000, 0.445000, 0.071200, 0.427200, 0.578500, 0.756500, 0.890000, 0.445000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −10 269.12 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −9 738.77 ₴ historical median

1% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2644557 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −9 655.40₴ · invest 15 683.59₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2644979 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −9 800.08₴ · invest 14 454.90₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)
Craft 2644983 · The Falchion Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit −9 800.08₴ · invest 14 454.90₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)
Craft 2644919 · The Gallery Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −10 308.69₴ · invest 14 963.51₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)
Craft 2644923 · The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit −10 308.69₴ · invest 14 963.51₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build