The Wildfire Collection + The Shadow Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit · with float −10 847.45₴

Invest 15 837.77₴

Average return 4 990.31₴

ROI −68.5%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest 15 837.77 ₴, profit −10 847.45 ₴

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −11 131.67 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 2 contracts · medium (by listings)

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

any lot

2 023.14 ₴

at 2 023.14

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Battle-Scarred

any lot

8 030.65 ₴

at 2 676.88

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Battle-Scarred

any lot

5 703.67 ₴

at 5 703.67

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 15 757.46 ₴ −10 767.15 (−68.3%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 92%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.073500

13 902.43 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.239687

11 371.74 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

7 753.46 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

6 221.51 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

9 919.27 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

2 371.13 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

2 943.62 ₴ 6.15%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

9 235.25 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

2 562.02 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

3 626.79 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

3 190.83 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 254.45 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.073500

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.239687

7 974.41 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

3 618.28 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

4 639.11 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.918750

6 695.89 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

3 078.42 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

2 153.89 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

4 022.68 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

3 777.99 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

3 992.57 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

2 500.11 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.739875

3 513.69 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers

no wear

6 938.77 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) × 1 100% of the wear range fits ×1.00 2 023.14 → 2 023.14 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) × 3 100% of the wear range fits ×1.01 8 030.65 → 8 110.96 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) × 1 100% of the wear range fits ×1.00 5 703.67 → 5 703.67 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.918750000

outcomes come out up to 0.073500, 0.239687, 0.918750, 0.918750, 0.918750, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.000000, 0.073500, 0.239687, 0.918750, 0.918750, 0.918750, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.739875, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −11 431.48 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −10 990.86 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2648011 · The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −10 767.15₴ · invest 15 757.46₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build