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The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −14.78$

Invest at least 28.15$

Average return 13.36$

ROI −52.5%

Chance of profit 2%

With float: invest at least 28.15 $, profit at most −14.78 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Share of fitting lots unknown: the price is understated

×2

P2000 | Handgun

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3838

1.73 $

at 0.86

Steam

×7

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1625

7.51 $

at 1.07

Steam

×1

P90 | Virus

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1625

2.40 $

at 2.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11.63 $ +1.73 (+14.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −8 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

P2000 | Handgun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1685

1.00 $

at 1.00

Steam

×3

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1685

3.22 $

at 1.07

Steam

×6

P90 | Virus

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1685

14.38 $

at 2.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18.60 $ +1.10 (+5.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

P2000 | Handgun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1670

1.99 $

at 1.00

Steam

×3

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1670

3.22 $

at 1.07

Steam

×5

P90 | Virus

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1670

11.99 $

at 2.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17.20 $ +1.24 (+7.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −5 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

P2000 | Handgun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1654

2.99 $

at 1.00

Steam

×3

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1654

3.22 $

at 1.07

Steam

×4

P90 | Virus

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1654

9.59 $

at 2.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.80 $ +1.37 (+8.7%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

9.00 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

float up to 0.038918

23.99 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8.74 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

AUG | Bengal Tiger

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

29.88 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | Corticera

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.089189

23.81 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.089189

18.22 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

Nova | Bloomstick

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

42.04 $ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 The Horizon Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 The Shadow Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −0.38 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1.17 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2690321 · The Falchion Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 1.76$ · invest 10.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Virus (Field-Tested); P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn): float at most 0.383972 instead of 0.383828; Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163052 instead of 0.162580

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build