The Breakout Collection + The Recoil Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −199 372.93₸

Invest at least 611 866.90₸

Average return 412 493.96₸

ROI −32.6%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 611 866.90 ₸, profit at most −199 372.93 ₸

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −10 003 ₸

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 4.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −108 988.46 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

104 497.27 ₸

at 104 497.27

Steam

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

163 278.15 ₸

at 40 819.54

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 267 775.42 ₸ +144 718.55 (+54.0%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 5.6% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −15 129 ₸

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

208 994.53 ₸

at 104 497.27

Steam

×3

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

122 458.61 ₸

at 40 819.54

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 331 453.15 ₸ +123 104.67 (+37.1%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.3% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −20 255 ₸

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

313 491.80 ₸

at 104 497.27

Steam

×2

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

81 639.08 ₸

at 40 819.54

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 395 130.88 ₸ +101 490.79 (+25.7%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 7.0% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −25 381 ₸

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

417 989.07 ₸

at 104 497.27

Steam

×1

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

40 819.54 ₸

at 40 819.54

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 458 808.61 ₸ +79 876.96 (+17.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 72%
Losing outcome 23%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

121 802.30 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

443 881.03 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

120 622.77 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

145 123.93 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

434 999.29 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

507 046.44 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

174 806.18 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

483 778.20 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

790 416.05 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

453 040.88 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

499 999.40 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

484 785.31 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

395 038.59 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

722 754.08 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

438 214.48 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

409 509.08 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

449 090.43 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

294 774.00 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 220 151.20 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

101 928.78 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

611 039.20 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

189 088.68 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

140 262.24 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

861 470.19 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

542 846.73 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

468 563.67 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

580 516.56 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

585 579.86 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

317 526.01 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

409 504.58 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 723 294.12 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

770 330.61 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 473.69 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

461 661.44 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

746 602.41 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Recoil Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Recoil Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Gallery Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +130 142.21 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +143 376.52 ₸ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2705851 · The Recoil Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 144 718.56₸ · invest 267 775.42₸
profit on prices without salesat least −10 003 ₸ sale unreliable no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2707017 · The Vanguard Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 130 860.04₸ · invest 215 190.76₸
profit on prices without salesat least −24 761 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009154 instead of 0.008758
Craft 2707019 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 130 860.04₸ · invest 215 190.76₸
profit on prices without salesat least −24 761 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009154 instead of 0.008758

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Recoil Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build