The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit · with float −53 527.10₸

Invest 175 831.47₸

Average return 122 304.37₸

ROI −30.4%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest 175 831.47 ₸, profit −53 527.10 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −84 192.53 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈80% of lots fit ≈ enough for 4 contracts · medium (estimate)

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3591

81 461.77 ₸

at 20 365.44

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3591

90 339.50 ₸

at 90 339.50

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 171 801.27 ₸ −49 496.90 (−28.8%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

140 656.02 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

152 418.15 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

78 228.19 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

62 763.50 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

100 519.70 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

36 433.49 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

29 023.88 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

93 587.95 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

49 537.97 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

37 321.74 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

38 094.36 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

63 104.10 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

866 182.04 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

814 935.44 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

316 995.41 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

391 141.48 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

516 989.93 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

259 200.97 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

303 207.60 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

265 750.07 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

402 610.43 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

198 963.37 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

185 934.36 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

333 911.39 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

467 416.31 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −60 746.07 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −52 177.86 ₸ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2708672 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −45 591.86₸ · invest 171 801.27₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.306666 instead of 0.359159; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): float at most 0.306666 instead of 0.359159
Craft 2708680 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −45 591.86₸ · invest 171 801.27₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): float at most 0.306666 instead of 0.359159; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.306666 instead of 0.359159
Craft 2708681 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −49 496.89₸ · invest 171 801.27₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build