The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit · with float −138.29$

Invest 416.59$

Average return 278.30$

ROI −33.2%

Chance of profit 18%

With float: invest 416.59 $, profit −138.29 $

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −178.41 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈41% of lots fit ≈ enough for 2 contracts · medium (estimate)

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3066

199.21 $

at 199.21

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3066

179.63 $

at 44.91

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 378.84 $ −100.53 (−26.5%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.035999

310.16 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.122499

336.09 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

172.50 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

147.78 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

292.01 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

80.34 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

64.00 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

206.37 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

109.24 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

82.30 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

84.00 $ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

139.15 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.035999

1 910.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.122499

1 797.00 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

1 320.34 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

904.33 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

790.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

571.56 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

668.60 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

586.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

887.79 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

438.73 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

410.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

736.30 $ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 030.69 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −119.93 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −104.90 $ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2708672 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −100.53$ · invest 378.84$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2708673 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −109.14$ · invest 378.84$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.306666; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.306666
Craft 2708681 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −109.14$ · invest 378.84$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.306666; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.306666

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build