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The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −616.55₴

Invest at least 1 708.17₴

Average return 1 091.62₴

ROI −36.1%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest at least 1 708.17 ₴, profit at most −616.55 ₴

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

91.79 ₴

at 91.79

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1718

33.74 ₴

at 33.74

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

554.84 ₴

at 69.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 680.36 ₴ +411.26 (+60.5%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

183.58 ₴

at 91.79

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

33.74 ₴

at 33.74

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

485.48 ₴

at 69.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 702.80 ₴ +359.87 (+51.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −81 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1633

79.58 ₴

at 79.58

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Full Stop

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

183.58 ₴

at 91.79

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

485.48 ₴

at 69.35

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 748.65 ₴ +285.08 (+38.1%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 51%
Losing outcome 47%
About break-even 2%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

349.29 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 386.80 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

1 324.56 ₴ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

93.95 ₴ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

AWP | POP AWP

Factory New

float up to 0.038499

1 618.62 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

about break-even

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

781.97 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Space Race

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

1 010.27 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly

Factory New

float up to 0.050749

842.15 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

525.90 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +179.38 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +305.46 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2743475 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 440.21₴ · invest 634.96₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161818 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074110 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2723359 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 437.28₴ · invest 737.97₴
sells slowly rare inputs

P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163150 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074574 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2744922 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 431.00₴ · invest 651.74₴
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Twist (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161805 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074106 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2743023 · The Glove Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 429.22₴ · invest 629.82₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2751938 · The Vanguard Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 428.21₴ · invest 656.30₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162887 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074482 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2722082 · The Anubis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 422.96₴ · invest 639.12₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2747429 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 418.62₴ · invest 632.14₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MP7 | Guerrilla (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.077600
Craft 2751098 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 411.96₴ · invest 622.69₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166424 instead of 0.171852; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075712 instead of 0.077600

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build