The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit · with float −60 236.88₸

Invest 187 413.94₸

Average return 127 177.06₸

ROI −32.1%

Chance of profit 18%

With float: invest 187 413.94 ₸, profit −60 236.88 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −78 839.70 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

58% of lots fit ≈ enough for 4 contracts · medium (by listings)

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3066

81 380.96 ₸

at 20 345.24

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3066

88 991.43 ₸

at 88 991.43

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 170 372.39 ₸ −43 195.33 (−25.4%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 74%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.035999

140 656.24 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.122499

152 418.39 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

78 228.31 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

67 017.87 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

132 425.05 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

36 433.55 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

37 542.17 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

93 588.10 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

49 538.05 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

37 321.80 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

38 094.43 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

63 104.20 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.035999

866 072.53 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.122499

814 936.75 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

598 775.20 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

410 112.01 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

358 218.46 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

273 041.79 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

303 208.08 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

265 716.47 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

402 611.07 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

227 866.68 ₸ 1.54%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

185 910.84 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.392999

333 911.93 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

467 357.22 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Fracture Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The CS20 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Danger Zone Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −52 040.84 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −45 200.34 ₸ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2755536 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −43 195.33₸ · invest 170 372.39₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2755529 · The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −46 846.51₸ · invest 170 372.39₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.306666; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.306666
Craft 2755537 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −46 846.51₸ · invest 170 372.39₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.306666; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): float at most 0.359159 instead of 0.306666

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build