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The Dead Hand Collection + The Falchion Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −2.26$

Invest at least 6.96$

Average return 4.70$

ROI −32.5%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest at least 6.96 $, profit at most −2.26 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

UMP-45 | Fragment

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

2.07 $

at 0.23

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

0.70 $

at 0.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2.77 $ +1.93 (+69.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

M4A4 | Zubastick

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1790

0.11 $

at 0.11

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0801

2.53 $

at 0.63

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0088

3.52 $

at 0.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.15 $ +0.33 (+5.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −0 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

M4A4 | Zubastick

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1687

0.32 $

at 0.11

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Fragment

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

0.46 $

at 0.23

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

3.52 $

at 0.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4.30 $ +1.29 (+30.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

M4A4 | Zubastick

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1687

0.32 $

at 0.11

Steam

×2

P90 | Elite Build

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

1.33 $

at 0.67

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

3.52 $

at 0.70

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.17 $ +0.86 (+16.7%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 98%
Losing outcome 2%

in profit

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5.98 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | Galigator

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3.92 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Electrum

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7.30 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

MP7 | Amberline

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4.50 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4.03 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

5.49 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18.51 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

8.21 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

5.27 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

1.08 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.39 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1.84 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2781293 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 2.05$ · invest 2.98$
Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2781467 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection · profit 2.02$ · invest 2.68$
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2770078 · The Ascent Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 1.97$ · invest 2.94$
P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2781672 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 1.95$ · invest 2.68$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2776495 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 1.94$ · invest 2.61$
rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076552 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2781586 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 1.93$ · invest 2.79$
M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2781184 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 1.93$ · invest 2.56$
P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074193 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2773575 · The CS20 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 1.86$ · invest 2.68$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076723 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2779826 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 1.86$ · invest 2.41$
Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074729 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2781518 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 1.86$ · invest 2.54$
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076693 instead of 0.076829
Craft 2781281 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Harlequin Collection · profit 1.85$ · invest 2.91$
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076779 instead of 0.076829

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build