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The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit at most · with float +2.01$

Invest at least 59.18$

Average return 61.19$

ROI +3.4%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 59.18 $, profit at most +2.01 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

0.70 $

at 0.70

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

21.92 $

at 2.44

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 22.63 $ +38.56 (+170.4%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.007446

9.00 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

13.59 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

208.47 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.006382

5.49 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

18.51 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.005531

8.21 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.005319

5.27 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.145425

14.74 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +26.67 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +34.11 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 54 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2798903 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 39.40$ · invest 23.45$
sells slowly float cannot be reached rare inputs

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004494 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798946 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 39.04$ · invest 25.81$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007369 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2767759 · The Ancient Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.91$ · invest 25.94$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006439 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798146 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.81$ · invest 23.81$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005232 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2761966 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.66$ · invest 22.64$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2797764 · The Safehouse Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.65$ · invest 22.62$
sells slowly rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2764470 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.64$ · invest 25.76$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007668 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2795249 · The Phoenix Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.53$ · invest 22.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005684 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2791268 · The Horizon Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.45$ · invest 22.84$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2762748 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.44$ · invest 23.89$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2794737 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.42$ · invest 22.54$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2796044 · The Prisma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.41$ · invest 22.96$
sells slowly rare inputs

FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007668 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798752 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.39$ · invest 22.68$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2770636 · The Ascent Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.36$ · invest 22.79$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2797421 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.35$ · invest 22.53$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2777501 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.34$ · invest 22.47$
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007610 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2771893 · The Boreal Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.33$ · invest 22.35$
sells slowly float cannot be reached rare inputs

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2796388 · The Radiant Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.33$ · invest 22.65$
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2797921 · The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.33$ · invest 22.85$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2788449 · The Gamma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.32$ · invest 22.42$
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005870 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798925 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 38.30$ · invest 23.35$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.003780 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2766775 · The Achroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.26$ · invest 22.66$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007825 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2774354 · The CS20 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.26$ · invest 22.53$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007783 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2780835 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.25$ · invest 22.26$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005968 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2795645 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.25$ · invest 22.40$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2790681 · The Harlequin Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.25$ · invest 22.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007839 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2778281 · The Chroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.21$ · invest 22.91$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2793718 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.20$ · invest 24.24$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2779404 · The Clutch Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.20$ · invest 22.29$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2798475 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.20$ · invest 22.33$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798605 · The Spectrum Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.20$ · invest 22.43$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2796740 · The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.17$ · invest 22.31$
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 2797103 · The Revolution Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.15$ · invest 22.30$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007976 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2773338 · The Breakout Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.12$ · invest 22.49$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2787006 · The Gallery Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.05$ · invest 22.80$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007892 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2781889 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.04$ · invest 22.68$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2789814 · The Glove Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.01$ · invest 25.69$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2789152 · The Genesis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.98$ · invest 22.75$
sells slowly rare inputs

MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2792897 · The Lake Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.97$ · invest 22.38$
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2785168 · The Fever Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.93$ · invest 22.60$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2792084 · The Italy Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.83$ · invest 22.59$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2771179 · The Bank Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.82$ · invest 23.43$
sells slowly rare inputs

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006040 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2791771 · The Huntsman Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.75$ · invest 23.48$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006217 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798803 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.70$ · invest 24.11$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798917 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 37.70$ · invest 24.11$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2794373 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.70$ · invest 24.68$
sells slowly rare inputs

AUG | Plague (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007956 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2769204 · The Arabesque Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.70$ · invest 23.95$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798898 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Train Collection · profit 37.69$ · invest 22.63$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2790288 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.22$ · invest 24.53$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2783468 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.15$ · invest 23.32$
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2798940 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 37.10$ · invest 24.71$
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2764863 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 37.06$ · invest 25.03$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2768556 · The Anubis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 36.67$ · invest 26.29$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 2769839 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 36.28$ · invest 27.74$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006114 instead of 0.007889

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build