to all crafts

The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +5.28$

Invest 8.56$

Average return 13.85$

ROI +61.7%

Chance of profit 35%

With float: invest at least 19.13 $, profit at most −5.28 $

float premium: unknown

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

1.77 $

at 0.59

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

2.24 $

at 0.75

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1617

1.50 $

at 0.75

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

3.05 $

at 1.53

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.56 $ +5.28 (+61.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

2.36 $

at 0.59

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1697

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

7.63 $

at 1.53

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10.73 $ +7.05 (+65.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

1.77 $

at 0.59

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1679

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

9.15 $

at 1.53

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11.67 $ +8.08 (+69.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Corporal

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

1.18 $

at 0.59

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1664

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

10.68 $

at 1.53

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12.61 $ +9.12 (+72.3%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 35%
Losing outcome 65%

at a loss

worst

FAMAS | Sergeant

Field-Tested

float up to 0.162999

2.97 $ 15.00%

Steam

in profit

MAC-10 | Heat

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12.10 $ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

SG 553 | Pulse

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.134999

7.27 $ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Guardian

Factory New

float up to 0.026599

5.12 $ 15.00%

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

7.54 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

77.20 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

27.63 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5.66 $ 10.00%

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear) × 3 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 1.77 → 4.00 $

MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) × 3 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 2.24 → 5.07 $

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 1.50 → 3.32 $

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 3.05 → 6.74 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.069999900

outcomes come out up to 0.162999, 0.069999, 0.134999, 0.026599, 0.036099, 0.055999, 0.047599, 0.069999

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection Variant 5 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.46 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +4.09 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Phoenix Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2794767 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.81$ · invest 8.37$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162624 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074391 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2784303 · The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.81$ · invest 9.64$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161665 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074057 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2761984 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.64$ · invest 9.64$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162942 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074501 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2794765 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.57$ · invest 7.46$
rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163623 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074738 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2791281 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.44$ · invest 9.87$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Traction (Minimal Wear), Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163640 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074744 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2770660 · The Ascent Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.28$ · invest 8.95$
rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear), P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165050 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075235 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2798621 · The Spectrum Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 6.14$ · invest 7.83$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164343 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074988 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2777518 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.88$ · invest 8.02$
sells slowly rare inputs

G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164479 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075036 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2784302 · The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.59$ · invest 8.70$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161565 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074022 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2788462 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.38$ · invest 7.64$
sells slowly rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear), Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162898 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074486 instead of 0.074072
Craft 2774369 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.33$ · invest 7.30$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162989 instead of 0.161707; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074518 instead of 0.074072

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build