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The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −31.84$

Invest at least 89.73$

Average return 57.89$

ROI −35.5%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 89.73 $, profit at most −31.84 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0784

17.55 $

at 2.51

Steam

×2

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

10.81 $

at 5.41

Steam

×1

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

9.76 $

at 9.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 38.12 $ +19.77 (+51.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0782

17.55 $

at 2.51

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

5.41 $

at 5.41

Steam

×2

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

19.53 $

at 9.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 42.48 $ +16.51 (+38.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −15 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1670

1.51 $

at 1.51

Steam

×5

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

12.54 $

at 2.51

Steam

×4

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

39.05 $

at 9.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 53.10 $ +8.10 (+15.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −23 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

3.01 $

at 1.51

Steam

×3

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

7.52 $

at 2.51

Steam

×5

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

48.82 $

at 9.76

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 59.35 $ +2.95 (+5.0%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 70%
Losing outcome 30%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

121.00 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

float up to 0.052941

46.82 $ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

float up to 0.037646

28.11 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

AWP | Electric Hive

Factory New

float up to 0.023529

74.65 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

101.15 $ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

float up to 0.042352

58.13 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 3 only The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +10.62 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17.15 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2769448 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 20.02$ · invest 36.98$
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075739 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.005022 instead of 0.007427
Craft 2770536 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 19.91$ · invest 33.72$
sells slowly rare inputs

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078708 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007619 instead of 0.007427
Craft 2769798 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 18.38$ · invest 35.86$
sells slowly rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076919 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.006054 instead of 0.007427
Craft 2764823 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 18.08$ · invest 40.06$
sells slowly rare inputs

Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078179 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007156 instead of 0.007427

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build