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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −14.61$

Invest at least 39.23$

Average return 24.62$

ROI −37.2%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest at least 39.23 $, profit at most −14.61 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1669

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

12.20 $

at 1.53

Steam

×1

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

2.78 $

at 2.78

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.73 $ +8.88 (+56.5%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1703

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0770

10.68 $

at 1.53

Steam

×2

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0061

5.56 $

at 2.78

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.99 $ +6.59 (+38.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1647

1.50 $

at 0.75

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

4.58 $

at 1.53

Steam

×5

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

13.91 $

at 2.78

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19.99 $ +0.46 (+2.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1624

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

7.63 $

at 1.53

Steam

×1

Nova | Ghost Camo

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

2.40 $

at 2.40

Steam

×3

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

8.35 $

at 2.78

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19.13 $ +2.37 (+12.4%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1622

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

9.15 $

at 1.53

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

2.52 $

at 2.52

Steam

×2

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

5.56 $

at 2.78

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17.98 $ +4.55 (+25.3%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

7.54 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

77.20 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

27.63 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5.66 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.046599

25.30 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

9.76 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +3.78 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +6.54 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2798964 · The Vanguard Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 9.60$ · invest 13.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166940; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075892
Craft 2794383 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.47$ · invest 13.81$
sells slowly rare inputs

AUG | Plague (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164540 instead of 0.166940; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075057 instead of 0.075892
Craft 2768583 · The Anubis Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.43$ · invest 14.16$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166940; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075892
Craft 2798156 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.26$ · invest 13.70$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166424 instead of 0.166940; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075712 instead of 0.075892
Craft 2764870 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.21$ · invest 14.99$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171852 instead of 0.166940; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077600 instead of 0.075892
Craft 2799009 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 8.65$ · invest 15.40$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Negev | Bratatat (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168561 instead of 0.166940; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076456 instead of 0.075892

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build