The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: no nightly check, the numbers below are at average prices

Average profit at most · with float −321.96$

Invest at least 1 140.39$

Average return 818.43$

ROI −28.2%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest at least 1 140.39 $, profit at most −321.96 $

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −30 $

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −121.91 $

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

400.07 $

at 100.02

Steam

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

89.92 $

at 89.92

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 489.99 $ +328.44 (+67.0%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −130 $

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

300.05 $

at 100.02

Steam

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0110

179.84 $

at 89.92

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 479.89 $ +213.32 (+44.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −230 $

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

200.03 $

at 100.02

Steam

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

269.76 $

at 89.92

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 469.80 $ +98.20 (+20.9%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 46%
Losing outcome 42%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

about break-even

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

556.31 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 048.98 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

520.03 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

192.60 $ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

813.53 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

750.51 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

972.09 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

382.96 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 420.08 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 049.99 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

548.57 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

231.37 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 582.42 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

307.12 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 200.49 $ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

817.64 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 241.75 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 800.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 063.03 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

686.98 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

247.24 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

535.04 $ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

163.53 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

161.51 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

201.03 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

250.00 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

297.18 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 460.92 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 111.42 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

211.43 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

490.01 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

203.37 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

418.73 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

103.50 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 only The Revolution Collection Variant 6 The Fracture Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +280.89 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +320.03 $ historical median

5% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Revolution Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2800943 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 360.23$ · invest 509.55$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800944 · The Revolution Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 360.23$ · invest 509.55$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800809 · The Revolution Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 357.37$ · invest 512.40$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800810 · The Phoenix Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 357.37$ · invest 512.40$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800939 · The Vanguard Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 353.76$ · invest 516.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006390 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800940 · The Revolution Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 353.76$ · invest 516.01$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006390 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800657 · The Revolution Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 351.49$ · invest 477.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −22 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800658 · The Huntsman Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 351.49$ · invest 477.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −22 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800925 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 348.96$ · invest 520.82$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800926 · The Revolution Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 348.96$ · invest 520.82$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010394 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2799653 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 336.70$ · invest 533.08$
profit on prices without salesat least −9 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2799654 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 336.70$ · invest 533.08$
profit on prices without salesat least −9 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800949 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 330.13$ · invest 539.64$
profit on prices without salesat least −16 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800950 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 330.13$ · invest 539.64$
profit on prices without salesat least −16 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.012146
Craft 2800941 · The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 328.44$ · invest 489.99$
profit on prices without salesat least −30 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build