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The Fever Collection + The Shadow Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +49.30$

Invest 79.87$

Average return 129.17$

ROI +61.7%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 194.62 $, profit at most −65.45 $

float premium: at least 112 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×8

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

51.39 $

at 6.42

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

14.81 $

at 14.81

Steam

×1

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

13.67 $

at 13.67

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 79.87 $ +49.30 (+61.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −59 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0798

19.27 $

at 6.42

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0085

29.63 $

at 14.81

Steam

×5

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0798

68.36 $

at 13.67

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 117.26 $ +60.92 (+52.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −78 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0789

12.85 $

at 6.42

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

29.63 $

at 14.81

Steam

×6

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0789

82.03 $

at 13.67

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 124.51 $ +65.93 (+53.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −97 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0781

6.42 $

at 6.42

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

29.63 $

at 14.81

Steam

×7

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0781

95.70 $

at 13.67

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 131.75 $ +70.93 (+53.8%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 0%
About break-even 45%

in profit

AWP | Printstream

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

178.41 $ 45.00%

Steam

about break-even

worst

FAMAS | Bad Trip

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90.51 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

269.74 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

280.97 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Fever Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Prisma Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Operation Riptide Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Overpass 2024 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +31.55 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +42.61 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Fever Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2831955 · The Fever Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 48.49$ · invest 76.13$
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) instead of G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075185 instead of 0.076230; UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New): float at most 0.004536 instead of 0.005451
Craft 2831870 · The Fever Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 47.33$ · invest 78.17$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) instead of G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076230; UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New): float at most 0.006202 instead of 0.005451
Craft 2823086 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 46.02$ · invest 80.21$
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) instead of G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear); UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075770 instead of 0.076230; UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New): float at most 0.005049 instead of 0.005451

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Fever Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

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How to build