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The Safehouse Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −10.77$

Invest at least 24.58$

Average return 13.80$

ROI −43.8%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest at least 24.58 $, profit at most −10.77 $

float premium: at least 14 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

6.16 $

at 0.68

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0854

3.88 $

at 3.88

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10.04 $ +3.76 (+37.5%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 8%
Losing outcome 2%
About break-even 90%

about break-even

M4A1-S | Nitro

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11.79 $ 90.00%

Steam

in profit

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

15.19 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

177.97 $ 2.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.002702

38.66 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10.17 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

P90 | Virus

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21.01 $ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Safehouse Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 The Vanguard Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 only The Safehouse Collection Variant 5 The Shadow Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The Sport & Field Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.25 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2.33 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Safehouse Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2815313 · The Ancient Collection + The Safehouse Collection · profit 3.63$ · invest 10.17$
outcome without sales rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005011 instead of 0.005431
Craft 2845121 · The Safehouse Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 3.48$ · invest 8.04$
outcome without sales rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear); Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.004171 instead of 0.005431

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Safehouse Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build