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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +7.65$

Invest 15.07$

Average return 22.72$

ROI +50.8%

Chance of profit 50%

With float: invest at least 36.79 $, profit at most −14.07 $

float premium: at least 22 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1655

1.50 $

at 0.75

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

10.68 $

at 1.53

Steam

×1

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

2.90 $

at 2.90

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.07 $ +7.65 (+50.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1653

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

7.63 $

at 1.53

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1653

1.71 $

at 1.71

Steam

×3

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

8.69 $

at 2.90

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18.77 $ +1.50 (+8.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

12.20 $

at 1.53

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1629

1.71 $

at 1.71

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

2.52 $

at 2.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.43 $ +5.47 (+33.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

0.75 $

at 0.75

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

9.15 $

at 1.53

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

1.71 $

at 1.71

Steam

×2

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

5.79 $

at 2.90

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17.40 $ +3.68 (+21.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

7.60 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

69.01 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

28.88 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

2.80 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.053249

25.57 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.043749

9.76 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.89 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +5.48 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2839092 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.39$ · invest 13.75$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163100 instead of 0.165571; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074556 instead of 0.075416
Craft 2839094 · The Huntsman Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 8.27$ · invest 13.75$
sells slowly rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164741 instead of 0.165571; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075127 instead of 0.075416

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build