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The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −5.06$

Invest at least 17.48$

Average return 12.42$

ROI −28.9%

Chance of profit 15%

With float: invest at least 17.48 $, profit at most −5.06 $

float premium: at least 10 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

2.19 $

at 0.44

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

1.69 $

at 0.84

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

0.74 $

at 0.74

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

3.05 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.67 $ +4.75 (+62.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0788

3.07 $

at 0.44

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

1.69 $

at 0.84

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0788

1.52 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.28 $ +2.39 (+38.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

3.07 $

at 0.44

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

0.84 $

at 0.84

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

3.05 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 6.96 $ +3.58 (+51.4%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

0.84 $

at 0.84

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1659

1.47 $

at 0.74

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

10.67 $

at 1.52

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12.99 $ +10.68 (+82.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 15%
Losing outcome 77%
About break-even 8%

at a loss

AWP | Exothermic

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

7.75 $ 35.00%

Steam

at a loss

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Factory New

float up to 0.061249

7.88 $ 35.00%

Steam

about break-even

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

8.60 $ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

80.00 $ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

26.66 $ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

2.27 $ 7.50%

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) × 5 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.47 2.19 → 5.42 $

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 1.69 → 3.73 $

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 0.74 → 1.59 $

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 2 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 3.05 → 6.74 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.087499900

outcomes come out up to 0.061249, 0.061249, 0.040124, 0.069999, 0.059499, 0.087499

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.59 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3.75 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Harlequin Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2869187 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.75$ · invest 7.15$
rare inputs

MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162989 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074518 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2893622 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.67$ · invest 6.00$
rare inputs

AUG | Triqua (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162328 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074288 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2886198 · The Horizon Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.52$ · invest 9.01$
rare inputs

Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Minimal Wear), Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162328 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074288 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2874257 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.44$ · invest 5.78$
rare inputs

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear), XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163330 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074636 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2885594 · The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.40$ · invest 9.18$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 5; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074022 instead of 0.074164; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New): 5 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New): float at most 0.003520 instead of 0.003644; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161565 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074022 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2893454 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.40$ · invest 6.45$
rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163623 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074738 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2893455 · The Snakebite Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.23$ · invest 6.34$
rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161617 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074040 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2891505 · The Radiant Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.22$ · invest 7.75$
rare inputs

SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear), M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164351 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074991 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2883385 · The Gamma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.19$ · invest 6.76$
rare inputs

P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear), Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161638 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074048 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2890301 · The Phoenix Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.11$ · invest 8.07$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear), MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162503 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074164
Craft 2872331 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.08$ · invest 6.57$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred), M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162127 instead of 0.161974; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 2; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074218 instead of 0.074164

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Harlequin Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build