The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −42 715.33₴

Invest at least 106 524.56₴

Average return 63 809.24₴

ROI −40.1%

Chance of profit 7%

With float: invest at least 106 524.56 ₴, profit at most −42 715.33 ₴

float premium: at least 60 235 ₴

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 6.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −29 142.97 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

35 952.57 ₴

at 8 988.14

Steam

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

9 952.19 ₴

at 9 952.19

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 45 904.76 ₴ +17 904.47 (+39.0%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.9% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 754 ₴

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

26 964.43 ₴

at 8 988.14

Steam

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

19 904.38 ₴

at 9 952.19

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 46 868.81 ₴ +12 019.06 (+25.6%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 11.0% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 650 ₴

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

17 976.29 ₴

at 8 988.14

Steam

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

29 856.57 ₴

at 9 952.19

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 47 832.86 ₴ +6 133.65 (+12.8%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −10 547 ₴

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

8 988.14 ₴

at 8 988.14

Steam

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

39 808.76 ₴

at 9 952.19

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 48 796.90 ₴ +248.23 (+0.5%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 67%
Losing outcome 21%
About break-even 5%
Above the Steam cap 7%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 636.75 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91 675.73 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 190.36 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.64%

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 762.63 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 292.79 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

53 944.83 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

78 138.74 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

83 164.10 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

64 058.83 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 385.39 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 701.44 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

200 043.36 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 886.66 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

58 336.69 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 344.67 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

78 042.93 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 883.94 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 040.42 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 485.61 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

189 793.95 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 581.10 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

84 539.23 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

53 813.91 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

45 941.65 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

57 765.20 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

54 797.04 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

31 475.14 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 412.35 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 359.92 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 210.53 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 953.58 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

73 881.87 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 only The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The CS20 Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +17 236.52 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17 685.05 ₴ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 17 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2894857 · The Breakout Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 904.48₴ · invest 45 904.76₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2895326 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 484.38₴ · invest 44 907.59₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 013 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895328 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 17 484.38₴ · invest 44 907.59₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 013 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2894778 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 17 186.81₴ · invest 42 887.84₴
profit on prices without salesat least −289 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2894780 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 186.81₴ · invest 42 887.84₴
profit on prices without salesat least −289 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895006 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 17 090.57₴ · invest 42 769.66₴
profit on prices without salesat least −591 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895008 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 090.57₴ · invest 42 769.66₴
profit on prices without salesat least −591 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2894700 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 17 027.72₴ · invest 43 046.92₴
profit on prices without salesat least −448 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2894702 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 17 027.72₴ · invest 43 046.92₴
profit on prices without salesat least −448 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895294 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 16 811.04₴ · invest 43 164.20₴
profit on prices without salesat least −735 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895297 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 16 811.04₴ · invest 43 164.20₴
profit on prices without salesat least −735 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895300 · The Gamma Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 16 806.09₴ · invest 43 169.15₴
profit on prices without salesat least −740 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895303 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 16 806.09₴ · invest 43 169.15₴
profit on prices without salesat least −740 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895046 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 16 302.46₴ · invest 43 557.76₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 379 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 2895048 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 16 302.46₴ · invest 43 557.76₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 379 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 2895382 · The Spectrum Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 16 240.78₴ · invest 42 368.15₴
profit on prices without salesat least −242 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895384 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 16 240.78₴ · invest 42 368.15₴
profit on prices without salesat least −242 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build