The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −460.26$

Invest at least 1 394.91$

Average return 934.65$

ROI −33.0%

Chance of profit 18%

With float: invest at least 1 394.91 $, profit at most −460.26 $

float premium: at least 735 $

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 3.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −309.23 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

221.39 $

at 221.39

Steam

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

387.62 $

at 96.90

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 609.00 $ +325.65 (+53.5%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −61 $

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

442.78 $

at 221.39

Steam

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

290.71 $

at 96.90

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 733.49 $ +212.88 (+29.0%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −148 $

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

664.16 $

at 221.39

Steam

×2

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

193.81 $

at 96.90

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 857.97 $ +100.12 (+11.7%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 57%
Losing outcome 40%
Above the Steam cap 3%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

556.30 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 042.10 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

520.02 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

309.29 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

782.80 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

750.50 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

972.07 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

365.00 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

811.62 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 035.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

548.56 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

231.36 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 582.42 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

294.02 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 200.47 $ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

817.62 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 241.75 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 849.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 063.03 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

535.18 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

247.23 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

535.03 $ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

163.53 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

161.51 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

1 880.59 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

1 197.10 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 021.98 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 285.00 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 218.97 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700.17 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

898.98 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 698.64 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

955.51 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 643.52 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The CS20 Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +281.25 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +317.69 $ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 19 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2894896 · The Revolution Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 325.65$ · invest 609.00$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2895826 · The Revolution Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 316.30$ · invest 586.82$
profit on prices without salesat least −22 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895827 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 316.30$ · invest 586.82$
profit on prices without salesat least −22 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895104 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 311.18$ · invest 535.62$
profit on prices without salesat least −9 $ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895105 · The Chroma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 311.18$ · invest 535.62$
profit on prices without salesat least −9 $ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2894818 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 309.68$ · invest 541.89$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2894819 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 309.68$ · invest 541.89$
profit on prices without salesat least −6 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895024 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 307.54$ · invest 539.26$
profit on prices without salesat least −13 $ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895025 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 307.54$ · invest 539.26$
profit on prices without salesat least −13 $ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2894740 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 306.14$ · invest 545.43$
profit on prices without salesat least −10 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2894741 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 306.14$ · invest 545.43$
profit on prices without salesat least −10 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895424 · The Revolution Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 303.00$ · invest 500.01$
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012869 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895425 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 303.00$ · invest 500.01$
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012869 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895608 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 301.32$ · invest 548.04$
profit on prices without salesat least −16 $ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895609 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 301.32$ · invest 548.04$
profit on prices without salesat least −16 $ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895638 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 301.21$ · invest 548.15$
profit on prices without salesat least −16 $ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2895639 · The Gamma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 301.21$ · invest 548.15$
profit on prices without salesat least −16 $ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2896010 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 297.56$ · invest 497.62$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2896011 · The Revolution Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 297.56$ · invest 497.62$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

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How to build