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The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3.99$

Invest 5.22$

Average return 9.22$

ROI +76.4%

Chance of profit 68%

With float: invest at least 12.13 $, profit at most −2.92 $

float premium: at least 7 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

1.63 $

at 0.82

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

1.94 $

at 0.39

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

1.66 $

at 0.55

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 5.22 $ +3.99 (+76.4%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 68%
Losing outcome 28%
About break-even 4%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

24.70 $ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7.21 $ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

5.48 $ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

7.95 $ 20.00%

Steam

about break-even

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

5.78 $ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17.99 $ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

8.34 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

5.17 $ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

0.95 $ 4.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.35 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3.51 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 21 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2939517 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.49$ · invest 4.74$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2933365 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.41$ · invest 5.43$
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2940167 · The Shadow Collection + The Sport & Field Collection · profit 4.35$ · invest 4.74$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear), P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3
Craft 2913203 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.35$ · invest 5.30$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2938495 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.35$ · invest 5.05$
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2936831 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.31$ · invest 4.77$
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2909265 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.30$ · invest 4.99$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074396 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074396 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2920100 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.28$ · invest 4.67$
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Spectre (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2920938 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.20$ · invest 5.40$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2916969 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.19$ · invest 4.68$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074348 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2937748 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.15$ · invest 4.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2932789 · The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4.10$ · invest 5.30$
sells slowly rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074411 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074411 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2940105 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 4.00$ · invest 4.37$
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2921946 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.99$ · invest 4.31$
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074222 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074222 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2940137 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 3.97$ · invest 4.61$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2918883 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.95$ · invest 4.03$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074537 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074537 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2904272 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.67$ · invest 4.98$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074185 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074185 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2918884 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.66$ · invest 3.92$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 7 pcs instead of 5; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074282 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074282 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2923303 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.61$ · invest 3.94$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 7 pcs instead of 5; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074381 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074381 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2923302 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 3.56$ · invest 4.05$
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074793 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074793 instead of 0.074468
Craft 2940082 · The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 3.39$ · invest 4.33$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074468

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build