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The 2018 Nuke Collection + The 2021 Mirage Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +8.28$

Invest 16.12$

Average return 24.40$

ROI +51.4%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 38.48 $, profit at most −14.08 $

float premium: at least 22 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

P90 | Facility Negative

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

2.00 $

at 0.50

Steam

×5

P90 | Facility Negative

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

10.52 $

at 2.10

Steam

×1

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0066

3.60 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 16.12 $ +8.28 (+51.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

P90 | Facility Negative

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

2.00 $

at 0.50

Steam

×4

P90 | Facility Negative

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

8.42 $

at 2.10

Steam

×2

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

7.20 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 17.61 $ +7.78 (+44.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

P90 | Facility Negative

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

2.00 $

at 0.50

Steam

×3

P90 | Facility Negative

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

6.31 $

at 2.10

Steam

×3

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

10.80 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 19.10 $ +7.28 (+38.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −9 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

P90 | Facility Negative

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

2.00 $

at 0.50

Steam

×2

P90 | Facility Negative

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

4.21 $

at 2.10

Steam

×4

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

14.39 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 20.60 $ +6.78 (+32.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −13 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

P90 | Facility Negative

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0774

2.00 $

at 0.50

Steam

×1

P90 | Facility Negative

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

2.10 $

at 2.10

Steam

×5

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

17.99 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 22.09 $ +6.28 (+28.4%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

worst

AUG | Random Access

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

11.53 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

53.89 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

MAG-7 | Core Breach

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

15.32 $ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

37.04 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

38.72 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.025899

39.29 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2018 Nuke Collection + The 2021 Mirage Collection

Variant 2 The Vanguard Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The 2018 Nuke Collection Variant 5 The Ancient Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 6 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4.22 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +6.60 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2018 Nuke Collection and The 2021 Mirage Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2952150 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 8.00$ · invest 14.08$
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074675 instead of 0.077552; P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New): float at most 0.004090 instead of 0.006608
Craft 2951385 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · profit 7.94$ · invest 19.32$
rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); MAG-7 | Core Breach: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076222 instead of 0.077552; P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New): float at most 0.005444 instead of 0.006608
Craft 2951782 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Graphic Design Collection · profit 7.66$ · invest 14.90$
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Halftone Shift (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077688 instead of 0.077552; P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New): float at most 0.006727 instead of 0.006608

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2018 Nuke Collection + The 2021 Mirage Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build