to all crafts

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +10.51$

Invest 15.27$

Average return 25.78$

ROI +68.8%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 37.80 $, profit at most −12.03 $

float premium: at least 21 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

2.83 $

at 2.83

souvenirSteam

×1

MP9 | Dart

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

1.23 $

at 1.23

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

11.21 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.27 $ +10.51 (+68.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

5.65 $

at 2.83

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

7.20 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

8.41 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 21.26 $ +7.04 (+33.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −20 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

8.48 $

at 2.83

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

14.39 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0775

4.20 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 27.08 $ +3.75 (+13.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

5.65 $

at 2.83

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

3.60 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

9.81 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19.06 $ +8.40 (+44.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −15 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

8.48 $

at 2.83

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

10.80 $

at 3.60

souvenirSteam

×4

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

5.61 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24.88 $ +5.10 (+20.5%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

7.99 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

74.75 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

26.66 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5.30 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

37.04 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

38.72 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.025899

39.29 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5.18 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +8.18 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2955719 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.97$ · invest 17.06$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir Nova | Interlock (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Minimal Wear)
Craft 2954445 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.78$ · invest 14.43$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Minimal Wear); MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074941 instead of 0.074154; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074941 instead of 0.074154

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

More

How to build