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The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection

StatTrak™ Restricted → Classified

Average profit +2.77$

Invest 14.32$

Average return 17.10$

ROI +19.4%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 34.21 $, profit at most −17.11 $

float premium: at least 19 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +2.93 $ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1704

2.29 $

at 2.29

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0771

7.85 $

at 1.12

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

4.18 $

at 2.09

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.32 $ +2.77 (+19.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1642

4.59 $

at 2.29

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

7.85 $

at 1.12

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

2.09 $

at 2.09

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.53 $ +2.93 (+20.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −8 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1640

11.47 $

at 2.29

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1640

1.59 $

at 0.80

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

3.36 $

at 1.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.43 $ +2.13 (+13.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×4

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1623

9.18 $

at 2.29

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1623

0.80 $

at 0.80

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

5.61 $

at 1.12

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.58 $ +2.62 (+16.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −13 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

1.86 $

at 1.86

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

13.77 $

at 2.29

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

2.39 $

at 0.80

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18.02 $ +1.28 (+7.1%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

37.21 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P250 | Visions

Factory New

float up to 0.063636

10.57 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.090908

9.93 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.090908

17.39 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

float up to 0.029090

27.50 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.090908

25.48 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Fever Collection instead of The Recoil Collection Variant 4 The Genesis Collection instead of The Recoil Collection Variant 5 The Shadow Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.43 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2.22 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2964148 · The CS20 Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2.95$ · invest 14.06$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074604 instead of 0.077101; StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New): float at most 0.004029 instead of 0.006214
Craft 2969107 · The Clutch Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2.92$ · invest 13.21$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074604 instead of 0.077101; StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Factory New): float at most 0.004029 instead of 0.006214

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Recoil Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build