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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −358.11₴

Invest at least 906.39₴

Average return 548.28₴

ROI −39.5%

Chance of profit 15%

With float: invest at least 906.39 ₴, profit at most −358.11 ₴

float premium: at least 491 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +474.29 ₴ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

27.37 ₴

at 27.37

Steam

×6

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

166.72 ₴

at 27.79

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

189.74 ₴

at 63.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 383.83 ₴ +164.46 (+42.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −90 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×8

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

222.29 ₴

at 27.79

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

52.54 ₴

at 52.54

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0783

63.25 ₴

at 63.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 338.08 ₴ +45.37 (+13.4%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

27.37 ₴

at 27.37

Steam

×5

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

138.93 ₴

at 27.79

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

252.98 ₴

at 63.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 419.29 ₴ +211.42 (+50.4%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

54.74 ₴

at 27.37

Steam

×3

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

83.36 ₴

at 27.79

Steam

×5

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

316.23 ₴

at 63.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 454.33 ₴ +258.79 (+57.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

83.36 ₴

at 27.79

Steam

×1

MP9 | Dart

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

55.53 ₴

at 55.53

Steam

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

379.47 ₴

at 63.25

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 518.36 ₴ +359.60 (+69.4%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 29%
Losing outcome 71%

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

261.29 ₴ 14.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

834.05 ₴ 14.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

345.68 ₴ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

243.41 ₴ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

46.49 ₴ 14.00%

Steam

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

360.57 ₴ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

3 373.30 ₴ 7.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

1 202.93 ₴ 7.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

239.18 ₴ 7.50%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +58.72 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +123.31 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2973364 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 210.74₴ · invest 380.09₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested), PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 3; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074040 instead of 0.074307
Craft 2985794 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 183.64₴ · invest 334.53₴
rare inputs

P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear), MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074871 instead of 0.074307

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build