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The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +4.65$

Invest 9.44$

Average return 14.09$

ROI +49.3%

Chance of profit 25%

With float: invest at least 21.78 $, profit at most −7.69 $

float premium: at least 12 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +9.81 $ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

1.21 $

at 0.61

Steam

×3

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

1.85 $

at 0.62

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

0.77 $

at 0.77

Steam

×4

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

5.61 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 9.44 $ +4.65 (+49.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

1.16 $

at 1.16

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1659

1.54 $

at 0.77

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

9.81 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12.52 $ +9.81 (+78.4%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

4.31 $

at 0.62

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1649

0.77 $

at 0.77

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

2.80 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.88 $ +2.09 (+26.5%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

0.61 $

at 0.61

Steam

×5

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

3.08 $

at 0.62

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1637

0.77 $

at 0.77

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

4.20 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.66 $ +3.37 (+38.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

1.21 $

at 0.61

Steam

×6

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

3.69 $

at 0.62

Steam

×1

MP9 | Dart

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

1.23 $

at 1.23

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

1.40 $

at 1.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 7.54 $ +0.37 (+5.0%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 25%
Losing outcome 75%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

7.99 $ 12.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74.75 $ 12.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

26.66 $ 12.50%

Steam

at a loss

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

2.78 $ 12.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.052499

5.79 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

1.94 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.045499

7.66 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.043749

5.39 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.184624

1.03 $ 10.00%

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) × 2 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 1.21 → 2.68 $

Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear) × 3 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 1.85 → 4.17 $

MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 0.77 → 1.66 $

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) × 4 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 5.61 → 13.26 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.087499900

outcomes come out up to 0.040124, 0.069999, 0.059499, 0.087499, 0.052499, 0.087499, 0.045499, 0.043749, 0.184624

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.72 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3.34 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2988289 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.13$ · invest 5.99$
rare inputs

AUG | Triqua (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162328 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074288 instead of 0.074471
Craft 2969393 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 5.06$ · invest 5.75$
rare inputs

P2000 | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear), SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162630 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074393 instead of 0.074471
Craft 2966360 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.98$ · invest 5.20$
rare inputs

Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161719 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074076 instead of 0.074471
Craft 2976868 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.97$ · invest 7.23$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear), M249 | Hypnosis (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163615 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074735 instead of 0.074471
Craft 2967609 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.76$ · invest 6.52$
rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred), G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162255 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074262 instead of 0.074471
Craft 2977555 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.66$ · invest 8.61$
sells slowly rare inputs

Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested), UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161518 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074006 instead of 0.074471
Craft 2976869 · The Gallery Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.66$ · invest 7.23$
rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Minimal Wear), M249 | Hypnosis (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163804 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074801 instead of 0.074471
Craft 2988577 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.51$ · invest 7.51$
rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear), P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 1; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161538 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074013 instead of 0.074471
Craft 2985795 · The Prisma Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 4.00$ · invest 7.87$
rare inputs

P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear), MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161596 instead of 0.162855; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074033 instead of 0.074471

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build