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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +9.28$

Invest 14.29$

Average return 23.57$

ROI +64.9%

Chance of profit 49%

With float: invest at least 35.69 $, profit at most −12.12 $

float premium: at least 20 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

0.77 $

at 0.77

Steam

×8

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

11.21 $

at 1.40

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Red Python

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

2.31 $

at 2.31

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.29 $ +9.28 (+64.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0769

8.41 $

at 1.40

Steam

×3

Negev | Bratatat

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1699

7.11 $

at 2.37

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Red Python

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0800–0.0860

3.86 $

at 3.86

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19.38 $ +1.74 (+9.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

MP9 | Dart

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

1.23 $

at 1.23

Steam

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

9.81 $

at 1.40

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Red Python

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1631

2.31 $

at 2.31

Steam

×1

Negev | Bratatat

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1631

2.37 $

at 2.37

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.72 $ +7.03 (+44.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

9.81 $

at 1.40

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Red Python

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1630

2.31 $

at 2.31

Steam

×2

Negev | Bratatat

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1630

4.74 $

at 2.37

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.86 $ +5.08 (+30.1%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 49%
Losing outcome 51%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

7.99 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74.75 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

26.66 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

2.78 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.124749

4.58 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.124749

34.61 $ 2.00%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

38.61 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

float up to 0.006999

11.49 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Virus

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.124749

4.00 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +4.33 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +7.05 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2983721 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 9.28$ · invest 16.12$
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Red Python (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163150 instead of 0.165604; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074574 instead of 0.075427
Craft 2988780 · The Vanguard Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 8.97$ · invest 14.32$
sells slowly rare inputs

Souvenir P90 | Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Red Python (Field-Tested); MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.170208 instead of 0.165604; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077029 instead of 0.075427
Craft 2988810 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 8.80$ · invest 17.15$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Red Python (Field-Tested); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166177 instead of 0.165604; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075627 instead of 0.075427

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build