The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −21 085.06₴

Invest at least 63 624.48₴

Average return 42 539.42₴

ROI −33.1%

Chance of profit 18%

With float: invest at least 63 624.48 ₴, profit at most −21 085.06 ₴

float premium: at least 33 439 ₴

To build: medium

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 3.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −14 313.25 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

10 379.35 ₴

at 10 379.35

Steam

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

17 422.87 ₴

at 4 355.72

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 27 802.22 ₴ +14 737.20 (+53.0%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 503 ₴

1% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

20 758.70 ₴

at 10 379.35

Steam

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

13 067.15 ₴

at 4 355.72

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 33 825.85 ₴ +9 294.74 (+27.5%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 60%
Losing outcome 37%
Above the Steam cap 3%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 820.15 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 027.56 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

45 128.41 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 933.72 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 915.73 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 859.99 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 808.94 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 471.52 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

35 278.12 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91 834.84 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 759.65 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 400.62 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 566.19 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 147.88 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 106.84 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 904.58 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 037.31 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

263 951.84 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90 255.37 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 155.77 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 142.25 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 149.13 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 380.98 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 356.66 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

84 472.71 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

81 229.90 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

45 866.43 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

57 988.96 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

54 056.20 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

31 597.05 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 478.63 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 655.69 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 358.53 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 871.30 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

64 519.99 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +12 630.93 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +14 266.86 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 31 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2990751 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 869.66₴ · invest 23 712.99₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010590 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990752 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 14 869.66₴ · invest 23 712.99₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010590 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990529 · The Revolution Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 14 850.32₴ · invest 26 132.38₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990531 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 850.32₴ · invest 26 132.38₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989555 · The Revolution Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 14 737.20₴ · invest 27 802.22₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2989725 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 14 519.37₴ · invest 23 876.75₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 2989726 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 519.37₴ · invest 23 876.75₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 2989765 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 14 397.40₴ · invest 23 998.71₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010590 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989766 · The Chroma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 397.40₴ · invest 23 998.71₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010590 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990501 · The Revolution Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 14 390.34₴ · invest 20 664.61₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990502 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 390.34₴ · invest 20 664.61₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990667 · The Revolution Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 14 328.87₴ · invest 21 817.98₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990668 · The Prisma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 328.87₴ · invest 21 817.98₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990331 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 14 213.07₴ · invest 24 411.89₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990332 · The Gamma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 213.07₴ · invest 24 411.89₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989477 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 14 196.42₴ · invest 24 386.23₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989478 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 196.42₴ · invest 24 386.23₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990105 · The Revolution Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 14 092.51₴ · invest 22 264.27₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012869 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990106 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 092.51₴ · invest 22 264.27₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012869 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989399 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 14 038.35₴ · invest 24 544.30₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011618 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989400 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 038.35₴ · invest 24 544.30₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011618 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990197 · The Revolution Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 13 937.80₴ · invest 21 574.61₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990198 · The Fever Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 13 937.80₴ · invest 21 574.61₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990729 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 13 862.68₴ · invest 22 346.21₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990730 · The Revolution Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 13 862.68₴ · invest 22 346.21₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989685 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 13 693.02₴ · invest 24 703.09₴
profit on prices without salesat least −493 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989686 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 13 693.02₴ · invest 24 703.09₴
profit on prices without salesat least −493 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990301 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 13 514.75₴ · invest 25 110.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −418 ₴ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990302 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 13 514.75₴ · invest 25 110.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −418 ₴ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990737 · The Spectrum Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 13 452.82₴ · invest 23 595.99₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990738 · The Revolution Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 13 452.82₴ · invest 23 595.99₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

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How to build