The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −211 359.46₸

Invest at least 637 780.23₸

Average return 426 420.77₸

ROI −33.1%

Chance of profit 18%

With float: invest at least 637 780.23 ₸, profit at most −211 359.46 ₸

float premium: at least 335 194 ₸

To build: medium

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 3.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −143 477.96 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

104 044.00 ₸

at 104 044.00

Steam

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

174 649.12 ₸

at 43 662.28

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 278 693.13 ₸ +147 727.64 (+53.0%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −25 087 ₸

1% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

208 088.01 ₸

at 104 044.00

Steam

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

130 986.84 ₸

at 43 662.28

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 339 074.85 ₸ +93 171.71 (+27.5%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 60%
Losing outcome 37%
Above the Steam cap 3%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

248 800.52 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

471 410.55 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

452 373.20 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

129 649.29 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

349 999.91 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 417.08 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

439 146.66 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

165 112.75 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

353 632.55 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

920 564.68 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

248 194.02 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

104 257.15 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

717 389.02 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

131 796.12 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

422 084.56 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

369 936.45 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

561 725.41 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 645 888.34 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

904 731.87 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

242 140.60 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

111 691.38 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

242 074.07 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

73 987.90 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

73 744.16 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

846 765.67 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

814 259.30 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

459 771.16 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

581 289.03 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

541 866.55 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

316 733.04 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

405 763.17 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

768 406.87 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

384 511.03 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

429 747.61 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

646 756.97 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +126 614.14 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +143 012.93 ₸ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 31 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2990751 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 149 055.45₸ · invest 237 702.13₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010590 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990752 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 149 055.45₸ · invest 237 702.13₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010590 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990529 · The Revolution Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 148 861.58₸ · invest 261 954.46₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990531 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 148 861.58₸ · invest 261 954.46₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989555 · The Revolution Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 147 727.64₸ · invest 278 693.13₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 2989725 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 145 544.05₸ · invest 239 343.68₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 2989726 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 145 544.05₸ · invest 239 343.68₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)
Craft 2989765 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 144 321.48₸ · invest 240 566.25₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010590 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989766 · The Chroma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 144 321.48₸ · invest 240 566.25₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010590 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990501 · The Revolution Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 144 250.73₸ · invest 207 144.79₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990502 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 144 250.73₸ · invest 207 144.79₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990667 · The Revolution Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 143 634.54₸ · invest 218 706.29₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990668 · The Prisma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 143 634.54₸ · invest 218 706.29₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990331 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 142 473.73₸ · invest 244 707.99₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990332 · The Gamma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 142 473.73₸ · invest 244 707.99₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989477 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 142 306.76₸ · invest 244 450.82₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989478 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 142 306.76₸ · invest 244 450.82₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012668 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990105 · The Revolution Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 141 265.15₸ · invest 223 179.99₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012869 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990106 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 141 265.15₸ · invest 223 179.99₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012869 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989399 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 140 722.25₸ · invest 246 035.33₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011618 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989400 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 140 722.25₸ · invest 246 035.33₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011618 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990197 · The Revolution Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 139 714.37₸ · invest 216 266.78₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990198 · The Fever Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 139 714.37₸ · invest 216 266.78₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990729 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 138 961.30₸ · invest 224 001.40₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990730 · The Revolution Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 138 961.30₸ · invest 224 001.40₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989685 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 137 260.67₸ · invest 247 627.06₸
profit on prices without salesat least −4 937 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2989686 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 137 260.67₸ · invest 247 627.06₸
profit on prices without salesat least −4 937 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990301 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 135 473.61₸ · invest 251 708.12₸
profit on prices without salesat least −4 186 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990302 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 135 473.61₸ · invest 251 708.12₸
profit on prices without salesat least −4 186 ₸ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990737 · The Spectrum Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 134 852.82₸ · invest 236 529.38₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261
Craft 2990738 · The Revolution Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 134 852.82₸ · invest 236 529.38₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011261

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build