The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −6 099.83₴

Invest 13 012.35₴

Average return 6 912.52₴

ROI −46.9%

Chance of profit 7%

With float: invest 13 377.83 ₴, profit −6 465.32 ₴

float premium: none: float doesn't matter

To build: easy

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 5.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −7 304.80 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit ≈ enough for 7 contracts · easy (by listings)

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Field-Tested

any lot

4 210.63 ₴

at 2 105.31

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Battle-Scarred

any lot

2 693.47 ₴

at 2 693.47

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector

Battle-Scarred

any lot

6 108.25 ₴

at 3 054.13

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 13 012.35 ₴ −6 099.83 (−46.9%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 7%
Losing outcome 86%
About break-even 1%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.067000

12 950.48 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.219375

11 417.29 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

8 320.25 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

6 221.50 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

9 900.36 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.679750

3 610.97 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.679750

3 697.40 ₴ 4.62%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.679750

6 748.53 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.679750

not on Steam: above the cap 4.62%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.679750

2 179.77 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.679750

2 653.06 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.679750

3 785.72 ₴ 4.62%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 279.51 ₴ 4.62%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.067000

66 705.49 ₴ 1.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.402000

not on Steam: above the cap 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

32 356.26 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.711875

47 672.12 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

27 803.14 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.418750

27 855.33 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.067000

9 025.89 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.402000

3 989.74 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.544375

4 935.03 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.711875

5 071.90 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

3 253.95 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.418750

3 354.34 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.067000

5 325.06 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.402000

2 906.22 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

2 954.06 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.711875

2 887.55 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

2 192.93 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.418750

1 990.16 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.067000

12 463.76 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.402000

3 565.13 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

4 216.08 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.711875

4 811.36 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

2 335.35 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.418750

3 000.35 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.067000

14 963.78 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.402000

3 785.72 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.544375

4 633.60 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.711875

5 394.89 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.837500

3 513.89 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.418750

2 735.64 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) × 2 100% of the wear range fits ×1.03 4 210.63 → 4 318.84 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) × 1 100% of the wear range fits ×0.91 2 693.47 → 2 451.87 ₴

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) × 2 100% of the wear range fits ×1.08 6 108.25 → 6 607.30 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.837500000

outcomes come out up to 0.067000, 0.219375, 0.837500, 0.837500, 0.837500, 0.679750, 0.679750, 0.679750, 0.679750, 0.679750, 0.679750, 0.679750, 0.000000, 0.067000, 0.402000, 0.837500, 0.711875, 0.837500, 0.418750, 0.067000, 0.402000, 0.544375, 0.711875, 0.837500, 0.418750, 0.067000, 0.402000, 0.837500, 0.711875, 0.837500, 0.418750, 0.067000, 0.402000, 0.837500, 0.711875, 0.837500, 0.418750, 0.067000, 0.402000, 0.544375, 0.711875, 0.837500, 0.418750

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −7 013.29 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −6 325.30 ₴ historical median

1% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build