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The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +1.93$

Invest 63.79$

Average return 65.72$

ROI +3.0%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 155.27 $, profit at most −89.55 $

float premium: at least 89 $

To build: medium

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

3% of lots fit: the price is understated

×9

Dual Berettas | Melondrama

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4641

54.86 $

at 6.10

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Tranquility

Well-Worn

any lot

8.93 $

at 8.93

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 63.79 $ +1.93 (+3.0%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 10%
Losing outcome 0%
About break-even 90%

about break-even

AK-47 | Nightwish

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.507692

74.74 $ 45.00%

Steam

about break-even

worst

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Well-Worn

float up to 0.406153

73.01 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

best

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

95.42 $ 5.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Fire Elemental

Field-Tested

float up to 0.304615

86.26 $ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection

Variant 2 The Falchion Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 4 The Horizon Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 5 The Genesis Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection Variant 6 The Fever Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −5.38 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −0.45 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Vanguard Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3020115 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 2.03$ · invest 66.09$
rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred) instead of XM1014 | Tranquility (Well-Worn); Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.492063 instead of 0.464102
Craft 3010899 · The CS20 Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 1.89$ · invest 59.33$
rare inputs

AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Tranquility (Well-Worn); Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.526501 instead of 0.464102

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Vanguard Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build