The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +1 419.60$

Invest 1 758.21$

Average return 3 177.80$

ROI +80.7%

Chance of profit 28%

With float: invest at least 4 111.00 $, profit at most −933.19 $

float premium: at least 2 329 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 6.4% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −1 368.04 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

230.04 $

at 230.04

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

1 528.17 $

at 382.04

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 758.21 $ +1 419.60 (+80.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.1% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −82 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

920.15 $

at 230.04

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

382.04 $

at 382.04

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 302.19 $ +251.45 (+19.3%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 23%
Losing outcome 62%
About break-even 8%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

762.78 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 383.83 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

876.99 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 153.51 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

653.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 450.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 610.26 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 153.50 $ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 200.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 486.97 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 800.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 683.68 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 032.65 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 230.79 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

about break-even

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 721.41 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 300.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 000.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 850.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 399.92 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 207.74 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

570.10 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 548.97 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

354.94 $ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

about break-even

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

1 859.35 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

1 800.29 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 000.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 285.20 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 304.22 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700.17 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

895.97 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 698.64 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

940.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 624.67 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 363.53 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 415.21 $ historical median

8% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3036925 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 1 419.60$ · invest 1 758.21$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3037145 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 1 419.25$ · invest 1 662.88$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3037146 · The Chroma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 419.25$ · invest 1 662.88$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3037781 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 324.20$ · invest 1 761.74$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3037782 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 324.20$ · invest 1 761.74$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3037515 · The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 1 319.48$ · invest 1 699.29$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007507 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3037516 · The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 319.48$ · invest 1 699.29$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007507 instead of 0.006756

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build