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The Arabesque Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +3.58$

Invest 10.82$

Average return 14.40$

ROI +33.1%

Chance of profit 95%

With float: invest at least 27.16 $, profit at most −12.75 $

float premium: at least 16 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

8.05 $

at 0.89

Steam

×1

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

2.77 $

at 2.77

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10.82 $ +3.58 (+33.1%)

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

6.26 $

at 0.89

Steam

×1

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

2.28 $

at 2.28

Steam

×2

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

5.54 $

at 2.77

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.09 $ +0.51 (+3.6%)

0% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

0.44 $

at 0.44

Steam

×7

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

6.26 $

at 0.89

Steam

×2

Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

5.54 $

at 2.77

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 12.24 $ +2.26 (+18.5%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 95%
Losing outcome 5%

in profit

AUG | Lapis Lazuli

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19.55 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13.61 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Lotus Imprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16.19 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.046599

25.81 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

9.35 $ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Arabesque Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.57 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3.01 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Arabesque Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3054561 · The Arabesque Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 3.65$ · invest 10.29$
rare inputs

M249 | Magma (Factory New) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.076256
Craft 3054582 · The Arabesque Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 3.52$ · invest 11.07$
rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076315 instead of 0.076256

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Arabesque Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 5 outcomes

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How to build