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The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +153.14₴

Invest 244.35₴

Average return 397.49₴

ROI +62.7%

Chance of profit 48%

With float: invest at least 566.01 ₴, profit at most −168.51 ₴

float premium: at least 321 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +161.59 ₴ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

84.06 ₴

at 42.03

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

85.61 ₴

at 17.12

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

74.68 ₴

at 24.89

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 244.35 ₴ +153.14 (+62.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

42.03 ₴

at 42.03

Steam

×7

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

119.85 ₴

at 17.12

Steam

×2

MAC-10 | Rangeen

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

86.14 ₴

at 43.07

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 248.03 ₴ +161.59 (+65.2%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

150.30 ₴

at 25.05

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

42.03 ₴

at 42.03

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

17.12 ₴

at 17.12

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

49.79 ₴

at 24.89

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 259.24 ₴ +77.65 (+29.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×7

Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

175.36 ₴

at 25.05

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

42.03 ₴

at 42.03

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

17.12 ₴

at 17.12

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

24.89 ₴

at 24.89

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 259.40 ₴ +65.37 (+25.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 48%
Losing outcome 28%
About break-even 24%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

1 106.61 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

315.00 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.043399

247.60 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.062999

270.77 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

about break-even

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

271.67 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

756.34 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.036399

425.05 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

225.64 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.175699

49.35 ₴ 4.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +83.18 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +133.43 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3077171 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 182.04₴ · invest 241.82₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 3082317 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 178.42₴ · invest 226.72₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 3063982 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 174.20₴ · invest 241.82₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 3076574 · The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 169.66₴ · invest 234.88₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 3063083 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 166.60₴ · invest 186.28₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred), M249 | Spectre (Factory New), XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New), XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 5; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074430 instead of 0.074468
Craft 3083978 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 157.28₴ · invest 211.13₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074468
Craft 3045955 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 154.68₴ · invest 213.24₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.088909 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.080442 instead of 0.074468
Craft 3083915 · The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 138.82₴ · invest 193.28₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 5; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074468; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 3; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074468

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

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How to build