The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −51 903.88₴

Invest at least 95 757.69₴

Average return 43 853.81₴

ROI −54.2%

Chance of profit 6%

With float: invest at least 95 757.69 ₴, profit at most −51 903.88 ₴

float premium: at least 52 543 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +25 963.24 ₴ по средним

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −12 513 ₴

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 21.0% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −28 378.01 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

16 969.31 ₴

at 4 242.33

Steam

×1

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

25 752.44 ₴

at 25 752.44

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 42 721.75 ₴ +1 132.06 (+2.6%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 18.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 688 ₴

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

12 726.98 ₴

at 4 242.33

Steam

×2

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

51 504.88 ₴

at 25 752.44

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 64 231.86 ₴ +9 409.12 (+14.7%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 19%
Losing outcome 53%
About break-even 6%
Above the Steam cap 21%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 998.11 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

9 369.41 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 413.21 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 838.96 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

50 088.02 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 263.95 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 307.74 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 263.41 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 072.83 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

3 680.62 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

60 655.04 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

39 576.58 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 055.30 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 558.67 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

245 946.19 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 655.55 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

102 364.14 ₴ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 153.29 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 092.61 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 065.79 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

75 968.39 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

26 174.09 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 926.00 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 322 242.84 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

361 021.94 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

126 312.55 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

965 730.07 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 493.82 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

25 723.18 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

69 890.27 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

15 973.75 ₴ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 4 only The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 5 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Arms Deal 3 Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +47.73 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +866.70 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Hydra Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3087063 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 132.06₴ · invest 42 721.75₴
profit on prices without salesat least −12 513 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build