The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +26 196.19₽

Invest 39 848.37₽

Average return 66 044.56₽

ROI +65.7%

Chance of profit 46%

With float: invest at least 92 645.48 ₽, profit at most −26 600.91 ₽

float premium: at least 51 616 ₽

To build: medium

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −15 730.22 ₽

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0138

7 784.97 ₽

at 7 784.97

Steam

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0114

32 063.40 ₽

at 8 015.85

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 39 848.37 ₽ +26 196.19 (+65.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −6 610 ₽

5% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0161

15 569.94 ₽

at 7 784.97

Steam

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

24 047.55 ₽

at 8 015.85

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 39 617.49 ₽ +16 369.25 (+41.3%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 46%
Losing outcome 39%
About break-even 10%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 946.22 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

86 298.99 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

82 813.85 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 734.29 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

64 027.37 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 135.50 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

80 392.53 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

30 226.42 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 212.35 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

168 523.60 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

44 304.91 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17 433.46 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

131 329.16 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 999.99 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 269.11 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 721.54 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

102 832.52 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

484 370.78 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

165 625.16 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

44 327.55 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 446.82 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

about break-even

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

44 315.37 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 638.79 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 500.00 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

18 347.24 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

17 193.52 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

24 614.19 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

120 819.12 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

91 915.04 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17 000.00 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

37 266.13 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 999.00 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 999.99 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 754.19 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +22 762.38 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +25 463.77 ₽ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Revolution Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 29 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3087230 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 26 245.95₽ · invest 43 606.22₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087231 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 26 245.95₽ · invest 43 606.22₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3085952 · The Revolution Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 26 199.70₽ · invest 50 651.61₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3085953 · The Breakout Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 26 199.70₽ · invest 50 651.61₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087227 · The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 26 196.19₽ · invest 39 848.37₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3087152 · The Revolution Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 26 019.61₽ · invest 39 697.71₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087153 · The Prisma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 26 019.61₽ · invest 39 697.71₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087012 · The Revolution Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 25 839.55₽ · invest 48 626.55₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012385 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087014 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 25 839.55₽ · invest 48 626.55₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012385 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086816 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 25 640.44₽ · invest 44 524.35₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086817 · The Gamma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 25 640.44₽ · invest 44 524.35₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086984 · The Revolution Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 25 528.93₽ · invest 38 012.23₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086985 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 25 528.93₽ · invest 38 012.23₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086248 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 25 248.39₽ · invest 43 491.52₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086249 · The Chroma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 25 248.39₽ · invest 43 491.52₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3085874 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 25 010.50₽ · invest 44 841.67₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.005233 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3085875 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 25 010.50₽ · invest 44 841.67₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.005233 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3085792 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 24 727.39₽ · invest 45 124.78₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012251 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3085793 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 24 727.39₽ · invest 45 124.78₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012251 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086686 · The Revolution Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 24 705.19₽ · invest 39 544.86₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086687 · The Fever Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 24 705.19₽ · invest 39 544.86₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087212 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 24 459.64₽ · invest 41 098.09₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087213 · The Revolution Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 24 459.64₽ · invest 41 098.09₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086596 · The Revolution Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 24 150.33₽ · invest 41 916.33₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086597 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 24 150.33₽ · invest 41 916.33₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086786 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 23 994.56₽ · invest 46 170.23₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3086787 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 23 994.56₽ · invest 46 170.23₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087220 · The Spectrum Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 23 738.31₽ · invest 43 517.29₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3087221 · The Revolution Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 23 738.31₽ · invest 43 517.29₽
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011477

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build