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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ascent Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −8.11$

Invest at least 19.25$

Average return 11.14$

ROI −42.1%

Chance of profit 10%

With float: invest at least 19.25 $, profit at most −8.11 $

float premium: at least 10 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

2.93 $

at 2.93

souvenirSteam

×6

P2000 | Royal Baroque

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

2.81 $

at 0.47

Steam

×3

P90 | Reef Grief

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

2.59 $

at 0.86

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8.33 $ +2.80 (+33.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×2

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

5.86 $

at 2.93

souvenirSteam

×5

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

2.39 $

at 0.48

Steam

×3

P90 | Reef Grief

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

2.59 $

at 0.86

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 10.84 $ +2.75 (+25.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −9 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

14.65 $

at 2.93

souvenirSteam

×1

P2000 | Royal Baroque

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0757

0.47 $

at 0.47

Steam

×4

P90 | Reef Grief

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0050

3.46 $

at 0.86

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18.58 $ +2.36 (+12.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −19 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

Souvenir M249 | Humidor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

18.04 $

at 3.01

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

11.54 $

at 3.85

souvenirSteam

×1

P90 | Reef Grief

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

0.86 $

at 0.86

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 30.45 $ +0.27 (+0.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×3

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

8.79 $

at 2.93

souvenirSteam

×4

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

1.91 $

at 0.48

Steam

×3

P90 | Reef Grief

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

2.59 $

at 0.86

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13.29 $ +2.74 (+20.6%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

in profit

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

14.91 $ 45.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

USP-S | Royal Guard

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

5.08 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.046666

36.43 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.129066

38.72 $ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

best

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.034533

39.29 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ascent Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Ascent Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Ascent Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1.29 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2.40 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Ascent Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ascent Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build